It’s been a troublesome seven weeks of football for betters brave enough to beat the books in as confusing a season as ever. With that said, we can officially look back at our priors, re-adjust, and move on to Week 8’s action. Aaron Rodgers is no longer an MVP candidate, Russell Wilson definitely isn’t, but Jalen Hurts is. The passing of the quarterbacking throne we’re witnessing has confused the masses and lined the pockets of our favorite sportsbooks. It begs the question, when should we fade the public?
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*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated*
Who’s covering in Week 8’s early window?
As always, we start with the “early early” game across the pond. Bless your heart if you’re willing to wake up early and watch the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars. On Halloween weekend? That isn’t going to work out. Nevertheless, a game will be played, and bets will be placed. The public is taking Jacksonville at nearly a 70% clip. That’s a lot of confidence in a 2-5 football team. I know the Denver offense is dreadful, but this defense is absolutely amazing, and incredibly well-coached. The Jaguars offense has struggled later in games, and I’m not overly confident in Trevor Lawrence producing against such a stout secondary. Broncos Country, let’s ride.
The Pick: Broncos +2.5 (-110)
Both teams had a little longer to prepare for this game, with the Minnesota Vikings coming off of a bye and the Arizona Cardinals winning on Thursday Night Football. DeAndre Hopkins was as good as advertised and may be able to mask the pitfalls of this roster. The James Conner injury doesn’t move me. They’re also a little better against the run than I anticipated. If Kevin O’Connell is too stubborn with his ground game, Arizona can find themselves ahead against an otherwise average Vikings defense.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
If the Miami Dolphins don’t win this game, and win it convincingly, we should seriously re-examine their first month of the season. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t seen the same success as he had early in the year, and against the Detroit Lions’ god-awful defense, a big showing has to be in store.
The Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-115)
Some of the bigger spreads this week have caused me to hesitate. However, I can’t say I disagree with the Philadelphia Eagles being such heavy favorites. Mike Tomlin’s team played well in last week’s loss, but I struggle to see how they keep it close, other than putting a lot of faith in a mediocre defense. I’m not sure Hurts’ impact on the run game is something the Steelers can truly counter, and the Eagles defense clearly outmatches Pittsburgh’s offensive attack.
The Pick: Eagles -11 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
I’ve had trouble with this game all week. If the New York Jets can beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots to get to 6-2, I’ll officially start believing. I don’t care that the quarterback probably stinks and they keep running into crappy quarterbacks. Kick the Patriots while they’re down this week and I’m all in. Until then, though…consider me concerned. They haven’t beaten New England since I was a freshman in high school. I graduate college in May. This, to date, is the biggest game of Zach Wilson’s career. How confident are you that he steps up?
The Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-115), Patriots Moneyline (-145)
Writing about the NFC South is like pre-writing eulogies in a nursing home. We all know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to win the division. We’re just waiting for it to happen, even if they keep trying to prove otherwise. In the meantime, the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers get to fling feces at each other and call it football. Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are without A.J. Terrell, limiting a secondary that should’ve had an advantage over Carolina’s receivers. I think this game stays close. Give me the future-temporary-division-leading Panthers.
The Pick: Panthers +4 (-110)
I’m not going to say that the Las Vegas Raiders shouldn’t win this game, but there are some non-football reasons to take the Saints. Vegas has them as 1.5-point dogs at home, despite being out-matched in the talent department. Also, about 70% of the money is on the Raiders to win and cover. This is going to be an ugly one, but if head coach Dennis Allen is going to keep New Orleans afloat, winning these games is paramount.
The Pick: Saints +1.5 (-110), Saints Moneyline (+100)
Another double-digit spread can be found in Dallas, where the Cowboys host the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields looked good last week and has been rewarded with perhaps the league’s most dangerous defense. The public is almost perfectly split on this one, and I see why. Fields’ legs give him life, but few teams can handle mobile quarterbacks better. However, Luke Getsy’s play calling looks a little better and we just saw Dallas fail to run away against a non-competitive Detroit team. The Cowboys will win, but covering is far from a guarantee.
The Pick: Bears +10 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
What are the best bets for the late afternoon slate?
The strikingly average Ryan Tannehill is sitting out this one, meaning it’s Malik Willis time in Tennessee. Perhaps a big enough game can extend his rookie trial. The Houston Texans are stingier than they’re given credit for, though. We’ve seen them take down a division rival already this season. Sure, Derrick Henry can run away with this one, but Houston is at home, with a potential quarterback advantage.
The Pick: Texans Pick ‘Em (-110)
In the battle of backup quarterbacks, we get the privilege (punishment?) of watching Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger battle it out. There are short-term gains to be had in starting Ehlinger, but I’m more confident in the product Washington is putting out, especially after last week. And they’re given a field goal! Take the Commanders and turn on a different channel.
The Pick: Commanders +3 (-115)
Welcome to your game of the week. New York Giants. Seattle Seahawks. Two teams outperforming their expectations with unexpected adequacy at quarterback and strong run games. New York’s defense is better than Seattle’s, but just like last week, the passing offense doesn’t scare me enough to discredit their secondary. However, Brian Daboll is running the league’s most annoying offense (for defenses) and it’s easy to see their front seven getting left in the dust. The Giants getting to 7-1 still feels really hard to believe, so I’ll side with the home team and hope a field goal isn’t too much to cover.
The Pick: Seahawks -3 (-120), Parlay: Barkley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards, Over 20.5 Rushing Attempts, To Score a Touchdown, and Walker To Score a Touchdown (+480)
The drought ends here. The San Francisco 49ers have looked bad in recent weeks, but I’m not sounding the alarm. They were brutally banged up against a feisty Atlanta team, and Patrick Mahomes…does what he does. They’re an elite rushing offense who got better in recent weeks and is now healthier, too. Kyle Shanahan routinely out-coached Sean McVay, and in a pick ‘em scenario, I like the red and gold. Don’t expect Los Angeles to counteract the 49ers defensive line like Kansas City did.
The Pick: 49ers Pick ‘Em (-110)
Who should we take in primetime?
I routinely take the Green Bay Packers and routinely have it blow up in my face. This time, though, I’m not putting my faith in their crusty quarterback. I’m putting it on everyone else. This defense is far too talented to repeatedly get embarrassed, and with personnel capable of matching Buffalo’s talent, I think they finally show up to play on Sunday Night Football.
The Pick: Packers +10.5 (-110)
So, the Cincinnati Bengals are really really good at beating up on really really bad defenses. Enter the Cleveland Browns. Ja’Marr Chase’s injury clouds things a bit, but Zac Taylor is coaching better, the offense is humming, and Cleveland couldn’t stop your cousin’s pee-wee football team if they had a couple capable offensive linemen. Ride the Bengals hot streak.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-120), Over 45 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article features a plethora of against the spread (ATS) bets. This means a team must cover the spread in order to be successful. If a team is favored (say, Bills -10.5) then their final score, minus 10.5, must be higher than Green Bay’s. On the other hand, the Packers’ score, plus 10.5, must be higher than Buffalo’s. These odds are typically around -110, meaning an $100 bet would net $90.91 in profit. ATS bets are meant to be 50/50 shots, so make sure you have an edge before placing.