When the Washington Commanders traded a package of day two picks for Carson Wentz, they envisioned a talented team weaponized with an average quarterback good enough to play January football. Instead, they got an average team dragged down by one of the league’s starting quarterbacks.
The sink is shipping in the Chesapeake Bay. The Commanders are 2-4 and firmly out of the playoff race in a stacked NFC East. Now, their starting quarterback is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Wentz fractured his finger in last Thursday’s 12-7 win over the Chicago Bears. He’ll be spelled by Taylor Heinicke. The journeyman admirably started a playoff game for the team in 2020, and started last season, finishing 7-8. It was clear then that Washington was still in need of a quarterback. They’ll have the chance to run it back with him and save their season.
Are the Commanders screwed without Wentz?
The immediate future looks bleak for Washington. But how much has truly changed?
Wentz has been dreadful. Heinicke isn’t good either. Frankly, this Commanders squad is virtually the same without Wentz. Our bets should reflect this.
Washington is the same threat (or lack thereof) to cash moneyline or against the spread bets. They very well could look dreadful through this next stretch of games, perhaps going winless. I’m not sure the change in quarterback play makes that so. They won’t be favored for a month, and for good reason.
However, a few aspects of Heinicke’s game separate him from Wentz, albeit laterally. Because he is an NFL quarterback with a pulse and a name on his jersey that isn’t “Wentz,” he’ll take less sacks than his superior. The production may not be pretty, but it won’t be “take three consecutive bad sacks to kill a drive” ugly.
On the other hand, Heinicke isn’t the volume passer Wentz is. To his credit, he was able to put up significant box score stats in multiple games this year. Wentz had thrown for 300 yards three times in six 2022 contests. Heinicke did so once last season. His presence suppresses the value of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. There will be less yards and targets to go around.
Washington’s backs have something to gain though. As the competition rolls on between Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson, interrupted in brief stints by J.D. McKissic. The trio will see more touches on the ground and through the air. They’ll also likely see more looks in the red zone, too. If you’re finding props for these backs that seem a little low, don’t be scared to pull the trigger.
BASIC TIPS
Quarterbacks are the most important players on the football field. Yet, they don’t have to be the pivotal reason to place or fade a bet. We often understate the impact of dozens of other players on the field. If a roster is good and coached well, a quarterback injury doesn’t have to destroy a season (see the Dallas Cowboys). Depending on the quality of starter, backup, and surrounding talent, their performance through adversity can vary. Bet on backup quarterbacks on a bet-by-bet basis.