The NFC saw its playoff hopefuls go through the wringer during #NFLWeek14. We saw a 17-point spread reduced to dust, a throttling in Santa Clara, and precarious teams staring down the barrel of collapse. What can we take away from Sundayβs action?
Dallas Cowboys 27 – Houston Texans 23
Two quarterbacks, 36 rush attempts, and as many turnovers as touchdowns summarized the Houston Texansβ day. It was another loss for the worst team in football as they continued their tumble to the valley of the first overall pick.
Beating a bad Texans was an easy enough task for the Dallas Cowboys, right? Their historic stretch of point differential, combined with one of the largest talent discrepancies across the league, culminated in perhaps the largest spread youβve bet on this season.
Of course, these are the Cowboys weβre talking about. Nothing went as planned. Injuries on both sides of the ball amplified Dallasβ inability to run away with this one. Houston led 20-17 at halftime before Americaβs team eventually flipped the switch. π‘
It was scary, ugly, frustrating, and probably a talking point for this weekβs talk shows. Most importantly, it was not very important at all.
We know they can decimate bad teams and not-so-bad teams alike. We know they have the quarterback to keep them competitive. We know the defense is one of the best in the league.
If thereβs a reason to be concerned, itβs with the novel-esque injury report coming this week, not the performance that preceded it.
Carolina Panthers 30 – Seattle Seahawks 24
Yeah, I didnβt expect the Carolina Panthers to become a mid-season problem, either. Despite the trades, the firing, the benchings, and the injuries, Carolina has won three of four and four of their last seven.
Suddenly, theyβve given themselves a shot at playoff contention.
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Theyβve found themselves in this position thanks to a brutal NFC South, in which theyβve already won three divisional matchups. With wins over the Steelers and Lions, the Panthers would improve their playoff odds from 33% to a coin flip by Christmas, per FiveThirtyEight.
Trending in the other direction is the Seattle Seahawks. Theyβve lost three of four, an unfortunate symmetry to their opponent on Sunday. However, neither of Geno Smithβs interceptions from Sunday trouble me too much. Iβm confident that the goodwill this coaching staff has earned will persevere.
Week 15βs contest with the San Francisco 49ers is the biggest game of Smithβs career and could make or break Seattleβs playoff hopes. The 49ers present a schematic and talent mismatch that Smith will play a pivotal role in deciding. If youβre more confident in San Franciscoβs hot streak, BetMGM is offering +120 odds on Seattle to miss the playoffs, meaning a $100 wager would win $120 in profit.
Detroit Lions 34 – Minnesota Vikings 23
Sundayβs NFC North contest was a case study in mid-season spreads. The Detroit Lions, favorites despite a five-game deficit, came through to prove Vegas right.
Iβm not entirely sure how much of Detroitβs win was a result of Jared Goff playing very well or the Minnesota Vikings playing poorly. Regardless, two things have become clear in recent weeks. The Lions can put up points in big numbers and the Vikings are liable to some helpless defensive performances.
This takes us to the present playoff race. Minnesota is on fraud watch, though thatβs more of a recalibration to them playing like a wildcard team, not some cataclysmic attack on their season. Itβs becoming increasingly clear that they are the fourth-best team in the conferenceβat best. π³
Detroit, however, has played really well in the past month. Their playoff odds are universally around 20%. They can boost those chances by about 15% per game with a weekly win until Santa arrives.Β
If nothing else, this season has proven that Goff deserves more respect than heβs gotten from the public discourse. No sane fan is calling him the answer or completely writing off a quarterback in this yearβs class, but heβs not the bottom feeder passer heβs been made out to be. At least most of the time.Β
San Francisco 49ers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
I meanβ¦come on. The switch just is not going to flip for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady and his cast of characters on offense arenβt lacking talent, but a poor run game and an inability to get into rhythm have stunted any sense of optimism.Β
The blame likely lies on a coaching staff that has botched clock management, play calling duties, and press conferences alike. Nonetheless, theyβve played themselves into an utterly unnecessary divisional race.
The fact that this division is so close is an indictment on this Buccaneers team and the fragility of preseason assumptions. I still expect them to host a playoff game, with -320 odds to win the South. Iβm just not confident it will be thanks to their talent or the crumbling of those around them.
As for San Francisco, what can I say? Brock Purdy exceeded expectations once again, aided by the head coach thatβs made a habit of reconfiguring the y-axis on your favorite analytical chart. Kyle Shanahan elevates the floor of virtually any passer he puts under center, and with a team as talented as the 49ers, that passer could find himself playing in some really big playoff games. π
Philadelphia and Dallas too potent to scrap in favor of San Francisco? Fine. Just donβt write them off as a team that can do serious damage to the NFC playoff picture.Β
BASIC TIPS
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