Nick’s Picks: A Cowboys-Titans SGP to close 2022’s TNF schedule

CeeDee LambHassan HaskinsNFL Week 17Treylon Burks

The not-so-grand finale of Thursday Night Football is only hours away on Amazon Prime and we sure have a doozy for you tonight. Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit must be pumped to be the voices of Amazon’s brutal 2022 investment. On the bright side, 2023 is almost here so maybe the TNF package, unlike everything else in the world, will get better next year.

Tonight’s matchup features the Dallas Cowboys and the Tennessee Titans, a team we won’t be remembering anytime soon. In case you haven’t heard, the Titans will be fielding what will look like a preseason finale roster, not a Week 17 one. Joshua Dobbs, the former Tennessee Volunteer, will be making his first career start. 

To make matters worse, FanDuel didn’t bother to bring back the “No Sweat Same Game Parlay” for the last Thursday game of the season. To keep with tradition though, we will try and find some value that ultimately leads to a winner, but we won’t blame you if you decide to stay away, which might be the most responsible thing of all. 

**Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**

 

 

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-110)

While it’s tempting to fade CeeDee Lamb tonight, we just can’t do it. The Cowboys’ top receiver has been on a roll lately and even despite concerns with Dallas benching its starters at some point, we will expect Lamb to keep it going. He’s gone over this total in three of the last five games, including one in which he settled on 71 yards exactly. Quarterback Dak Prescott is looking his way often and against a Titans’ defense that has allowed a 75-plus yard receiver in four of the last five, Lamb should get this done easily tonight. 

This bet means that Lamb must record at least 72 receiving yards for it to be a winner. The -110 price means that if you were to bet this as a single bet, you would need to wager $110 to win $100. A single bet is when you are betting on only one outcome. 

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) anytime touchdown scorer (-105)

Obviously we like the former Oklahoma Sooner to have a big game through the air, so it only makes sense that he finds the end zone as well. Touchdowns can be a streaky business and we don’t have to look far for evidence of that. Teammate Ezekiel Elliott has scored in eight straight games. Lamb found paydirt twice on Christmas Eve last week, and we only need him to get there once today. 

In order for this bet to win, Lamb must be on rushing or receiving end of a score. Passing touchdowns do not count for this wager, so if Lamb does throw one, it wouldn’t count in this case.

Treylon Burks (TEN) OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-110)

So this is where it gets tricky. If you took one look at every player prop on the Tennessee side of things, you’d be screaming for us to steer clear. You’re right. We probably should. However, we will not do that and instead believe there is value in these small numbers. Treylon Burks hasn’t had the impact the Titans’ front office expected he’d have in year one, but we are asking for 25 receiving yards from a first round pick. Now if Malik Willis was starting, this would be an play on the under. Instead Dobbs will be under center and there’s no way he can possibly be worse at throwing the football. Willis never passed for at least 100 yards in any of his three starts. We’ll say it again. There’s no way Dobbs can possibly be worse. Burks has cleared this number in three of the last four games without Willis, leading us to believe in the rookie out of Arkansas. 

Hassan Haskins (TEN) OVER 10.5 receiving yards (-105)

If you believed in our logic for the Burks pick, then this one should be a breeze. Hassan Haskins will get the start tonight with Derrick Henry sitting out for this meaningless contest on the Titans side of things. Haskins has been the second string back that rotates in on third downs and some pass catching situations. With Henry out of the picture, Haskins will mostly be in sole possession of the backfield, creating plenty of opportunity for the rookie. He cleared this line last week, finishing with 17 receiving yards, so there is some evidence beyond our speculation. Tennessee will probably be in passing situations all night long, so we shouldn’t have too many problems, at least situationally, in getting Burks and Haskins over their respective totals. 

Cowboys-Titans SGP +1103

The final Thursday Night Football parlay of the year pays +1103, meaning a $100 bet would pay an additional $1,103 if all four picks were winners. It’s been a fun ride this season despite some bad luck and horrible games. Thanks for coming along for it. Cheers to more fun and winning wagers in 2023. Now for one final time on the 2022 TNF calendar, happy betting and please play responsibly.

A same game parlay is when you are combining multiple outcomes from the same game in hopes of securing a larger payout. In order to win this particular bet, all four picks must win as well. For example, if Haskins finishes with 15 receiving yards, but Lamb doesn’t score a touchdown, then the wager would lose.