They say defense wins championships, but all too often we find ourselves praying on the game’s final play that the kicker’s fate will be in our favor. Special teams can be the silent killer of Super Bowl aspirations or the catalyst of a championship run. From surprise onside kicks to botched field goals, the bridge between offense and defense will play an impactful role in raising the Lombardi Trophy.
Of course, that means our Super Bowl bets may find themselves in harm’s way. Which special teams units should we keep our eyes on?
Does Brett Maher have the yips?
In what was unequivocally the worst kicking performance in recent playoff history, Dallas Cowboys kicker Brett Maher was successful on just one of his five extra points. Trust me, nobody is happier than him that Dallas advanced to the Divisional Round.
The question that remains is simple: can the Cowboys trust Maher? His teammates had his back after the game, even if their frustrations were captured on camera before victory was secured. Head coach Mike McCarthy did, too, stating that Maher’s job was safe.
Still, they signed kicker Tristan Vizcaino to the practice squad. If they can escape a tussle with the San Francisco 49ers with a win despite another kicker sabotage, it will likely be Vizcaino’s job.
“Money” Maher has made 29/32 field goals in 2022 and 50/53 extra points. In 2018, his lone playoff run prior to this season, he went 1/2 on field goal attempts, missing one from deep. He successfully converted each of the five extra points asked of him.
Maher’s issue on Monday was mental, which casts uncertainty upon the near future. But if we’re going to give his track record any credence, we should allow it to boost our confidence in the Cowboys kicker.
Currently, DraftKings has both teams at -110 to cover the 3.5-point spread, with Dallas as the underdog. A successful bet on either side would win $100 with a $110 bet.
Where might special teams come into play?
Judging special teams play comes down to a lot more than field goal percentage, and it’s important to quantify the impact it has on each game. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which attempts to convert field goals, kicks, punts, and their respective returns into points, and in turn, a percentage, we can begin our assessment.
Leading the league in special teams DVOA are the Buffalo Bills, at 5%. For reference the remaining playoff teams rank as follows:
- Dallas Cowboys, 10th, 1.8%
- Jacksonville Jaguars, 11th, 1.7%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 13th, 0.5%
- San Francisco 49ers, 15th, 0.2%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 18th, -0.5%
- Kansas City Chiefs, 19th, -0.9%
- New York Giants, 22nd, -1.2%
Not only does Buffalo lead the pack, they lap it. The distance between the Bills and the next-ranked playoff team, the Cowboys, is essentially equivalent to the distance between Dallas and the Tennessee Titans, the 24th-ranked team in the league.
It may not make a huge difference this week when they host the Bengals, but a path to a Super Bowl is always possible with Josh Allen under center. Good luck going three playoff games without special teams becoming a huge factor.
DraftKings has the best odds for the Bills to bring a title home to the league’s best fans, at +350. If you want to celebrate every Tyler Bass field goal or Nyheim Hines return, be sure to use their promotion for Bet Basics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
While special teams may win Buffalo a game, a conference, or a championship, it may cost Patrick Mahomes a chance to add on to his Canton-bound legacy. The Chiefs special teams is mediocre, but they get there in a unique fashion.
Tommy Townsend has been the league’s best punter this year, accumulating more EPA than anyone else at his position (via @ThePuntRunts on Twitter). Per DVOA, their punt team is the second-best in the sport. The only problem…is a very good one. They’re the Chiefs! It is hard to punt when you are consistently scoring touchdowns.
Conversely, the anchor has been Harrison Butker. Not only has he missed time, hurting their production from the kicker spot. He’s also missed a quarter of his field goal attempts, and is only 3/7 from 50+ yards. Kansas City’s field goal/extra point unit ranks dead last per Football Outsiders, garnering -10.7 points worth of value.
The injury clouds the picture, as does Andy Reid’s aggressive kicker usage late in halves, but this is an underperforming unit on a team that has been gashed by poor special teams play throughout the season. It’s hard to bet against Mahomes and +310 odds to win it all (Caesars). Yet, poor special teams play is a justifiable reason to walk away.
Only one Super Bowl champion in the last 11 seasons has had a special teams DVOA ranking in the bottom half of the NFL. That leaves us with five teams, but only one truly elite quarterback. Do you trust Buffalo to kick the competition out of the playoffs?
BASIC TIPS
This article features a handful of futures bets, which are bets placed on a more distant outcome than, say, an upcoming regular season game. In this case, the eventual Super Bowl champion is our focus. Other types of futures revolve around award winners, season-long statistical leaders, and wagers on the NFL draft. These bets offer us longer odds at the expense of uncertainty, but you can gain confidence by using Bet Basics’ player and team cards to aid your experience.