By Anthony Licciardi
After dismantling their Super Bowl dreams just a few years ago, Russell Wilson has found himself under center for the Denver Broncos. With a new and (vastly) improved supporting cast, Denver is a Super Bowl contender once again.
It’s not a matter of if Denver is going to put points up on the board, it’s a matter of how.
Wilson’s offense in Seattle typically saw two productive wide receivers at one time. Most recently, Tyler Lockett and newly-extended DK Metcalf have boasted large market shares for both targets and air yards.
The Broncos, however, are fortunate enough to have three legitimate starting wide receivers. Courtland Sutton is widely viewed as an orange-clad Metcalf for Wilson. Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick will battle it out for the No. 2 receiver role.
Can Patrick thrive in a Wilson-led offense?
Jeudy, a former first-round pick, is the early favorite, at least in fantasy circles, but his future is far from a guarantee. Jeudy has flashed and is a more reliable separator, but struggles at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point more than Denver would like. He also was not drafted by the current administration.
On the other hand, Patrick complements Jeudy well, and when in 11 personnel, presents a “pick your poison” proposition for defenses. Patrick is more consistent, can play inside or on the boundary, and is decidedly a better blocker, too.
Patrick, who signed a three-year, $34 million extension in November, is a worthy candidate to win Wilson’s heart. He hauled in 53 of 85 targets for 734 yards in 2021, finding the end zone five times. A Jeudy injury skewed stats in Patrick’s favor, but Patrick bested him in average depth of target (aDOT) and yards/target.
A big showing from Patrick can have a residual effect on the rest of the offense, too. More attention on Sutton and Patrick means less attention on everyone else. If they can move the ball out of 12 personnel, they’ll see better numbers on the ground, too.
There’s already enough variance woven into the fabric of the offense between Wilson and Javonte Williams. Patrick offers a dose of stability for a team transitioning from mediocrity to true competitiveness.
It may be hard to find a Patrick yards total bet right now, but with a passing yards line of 4,100.5 for Wilson (per DraftKings), there’s enough production to go around. In a fast-paced offense and a passer quick to find favorites, Patrick could be in line for a big 2022.