It finally happened.
The star director found the perfect Academy Award-winning actor for their movie. The co-stars had chemistry, the producer was fully on board, and by the time it hit screens, the movie already felt like a box office success.
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI, cementing head coach Sean McVay’s legacy and giving quarterback Matthew Stafford a legitimate shot at Canton. An innovative architect of one of the league’s most influential offenses finally found the man fit to execute it.
The Rams would go on to have the fourth-best Estimated Points Added (EPA) per play on dropbacks and complemented that with an upper-echelon defense, too. Their 12-5 record would win the NFC West and ultimately host the NFC Conference game, as well as (coincidentally) the big game.
Outside of injuries to Robert Woods and Cam Akers, Los Angeles was able to stay healthy, at least when it came to their key players. Stafford began dealing with an elbow injury as the season went on, but outside of bearing the blame for his interceptions, it didn’t have much of an impact. There’s nothing wrong with admitting they were lucky on the injury front as it often takes that to make a deep playoff run. But can the City of Angels find more blessings in 2022?
To be fair, it wasn’t all luck. The Rams were stacked, and everyone knew it. Stafford lit defenses up for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp had a historic year in which he racked up 1,947 yards. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald continued his run as one of the greatest defensive players of all time. As long as he stops hitting people with helmets, his dominance will persist. Jalen Ramsey manned a secondary that held up long enough for Donald and co. to wreak havoc and a mid-season acquisition of Von Miller was the final sign from management that they were all in.
Draft picks be damned, the Rams had a Super Bowl to win.
Now, Miller is with the Buffalo Bills, preparing to take down Los Angeles in Week 1. Cornerback Darious Williams got a bag from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sebastian Joseph-Day will play in the same stadium, but use the other locker room. Woods has found a new home in Nashville.
They’re still a talented bunch, but there’s a reason the Lombardi Trophy never stays in one place for too long. Can they replicate their success?
Los Angeles through a betting lens
The consensus in Vegas seems to be a little low on the Rams. Most books have set their win total at 10.5, which also happens to be the line on trailers at the local movie theater. Sure, the schedule got a little tougher and the team got a little worse, but 10 wins feels very much like a team destined for the fourth seed, and I don’t buy that. Few teams can match this roster’s firepower. As long as the offensive line doesn’t collapse in on itself, Los Angeles offers one of the safest over bets in the NFL.
Of course, their success will rely heavily on the happy marriage of McVay and Stafford. Currently listed at +1600 to win MVP (DraftKings), Stafford has hefty expectations waiting for him. If the arm truly isn’t a concern, which noise out of camp seems to confirm, he’ll give it a decent shot, but that wager won’t get my buck. Especially when Lamar Jackson sits at +2000.
It seems the story of Hollywood is asking for a sequel, only to be bitterly disappointed. Kupp will attempt to win back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year awards, boasting the same odds as Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel (+1200). His fate is likely too tied to his quarterback to have faith in. Regardless, he is the cog to the McVay machine. His ability to impact every level of the field and take the run game to another level is a gift that cannot be overstated.
Naturally, the name circled on every Rams scouting report is Donald’s. He’s still the best defensive player in football and I’m not sure it’s close. He routinely breaks the graphs meant to quantify defensive line play and that should continue in 2022. At +800 to win Defensive Player of the Year, Donald will look to add another incredible year to his ungodly resume.
Additionally, part of what makes Los Angeles great is their ability to hit on picks later in the draft. This ability has allowed them to be aggressive with their top picks, routinely flipping them for stars to capitalize on their Super Bowl window. With that said, the only rookie on this roster worth your time is running back Kyren Williams.
The Notre Dame product is an outlier in the worst sense of the word. His size, speed, and athleticism rank very poorly, though it’s possible the Rams’ GPS speed measurements tell a separate story. He’s a strong blocker that can stick on the field for every down should he get a chance to play.
The BetBasics Best Bet for the Rams is pretty simple. If you can find plus money on Los Angeles to win the NFC West, such as the +130 odds from DraftKings, take it and run. The Seattle Seahawks are out of the equation. The Arizona Cardinals feel like they are run by the cast of “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” and not just because their star needs a booster seat to drive.
Frankly, the Rams’ main competition for the division is a San Francisco 49ers team that is truly a lot of fun. If Trey Lance plays to the hype he’s received, the division will be the least of Los Angeles’ worries. Not getting buried twice a year might take precedence. Thankfully, for them, playing quarterback is hard and if Lance struggles out of the gate, the Rams will have the chance to wrap up the division fairly early.
Los Angeles is in a pretty admirable spot. The coaching staff is strong, the roster still looks really good, and they get an extra bye week in the form of the Atlanta Falcons. If Stafford is ready to go and the offensive line is up to par, things should continue seamlessly.
It’s easy to fall in love with the Rams and their pursuit to keep the Lombardi Trophy in La La Land. Unlike its traffic, Los Angeles’ odds can move quickly—cash in on them while you still can.