The plague of poor quarterbacking has taken over the league. Week 6 showcases two third-string quarterbacks, six other backups, and a collection of big names who suddenly look worse than ever.
As bettors, there hasn’t been a more confusing start to the year in ages. The young quarterbacks are incredibly volatile. The Canton-bound veterans are unpredictable. Hell, Geno Smith looks like an MVP candidate.
How the hell should we navigate an ugly Week 6 slate?
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.*
Who will cover in the early slate?
The New York Giants’ culture change is real. Head coach Brian Daboll has done an excellent job establishing Big Blue as a respectable organization, a development that will continue to help them throughout their rebuild. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to keep things that close on Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens have Lamar Jackson, and simply put, New York doesn’t have the talent to match. Being at home and boasting former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale helps. However, it’s important to remember they haven’t beaten a team playing good football yet.
The Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-110), Over 45.5 (-110)
Every time I expect the New York Jets to disappoint, they surprise with a competitive outing. Perhaps my optimism curses them this week, but Zach Wilson is playing well and is developing in real time. Their corners should dominate Green Bay’s lackluster receivers. Expect a big day from the Jets running backs and an adequate Wilson performance, even if he doesn’t pull out the win.
The Pick: Jets +7.5 (-110), Breece Hall Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-157)
Ten points isn’t enough. Last week, I made the mistake of taking a Pittsburgh Steelers team walking into a Buffalo buzzsaw. I’m not making it again. They are bruised, battered, and most importantly, bad. Tom Brady is going to have all day to dice up the remains of this defense. A top tier defense against a bottom tier offense should give us a pretty straightforward matchup.
The Pick: Buccaneers -9.5 (-110)
Welcome to the Rhamondre Stevenson game. No team has been worse against the run than the Cleveland Browns. New England isn’t scared to hammer a weakness and then hammer some more. They’ll be incentivized to play conservative with Bailey Zappe under center. Stevenson is primed for a nuclear performance. On the other side of the ball, I like Bill Belichick’s chances of slowing down a mediocre quarterback that he traded away.
The Pick: Patriots +2.5 (-110), Rhamondre Stevenson to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+340)
Trust is important. A quarterback must trust his offensive line to hold up and his receivers to get to the right spot. A coach must trust his players to execute his calls in crunch time. Bettors must trust the Minnesota Vikings can beat a banged up Miami Dolphins squad and their third string quarterback. I’m not sure there’s another top 15 quarterback that would only be favored by a field goal against this squad.
The Pick: Vikings -3 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals can’t get out of their own way right now. They haven’t beaten Cover 2 with any consistency, and their stacked lineup of playmakers haven’t taken the lid off of a defense yet. In Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase’s return to Louisiana, we can anticipate that changing. I don’t think New Orleans abandons their scheme to hop on the Cover 2 bandwagon, leaving them vulnerable to the Bengals’ dynamic duo. Also, Cincinnati’s defense has stepped up to the task so far this year. There’s no reason to expect that to change against Andy Dalton.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (+100), Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TD (-108), Ja”Marr Chase Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-121)
The league’s best defense resides in San Francisco. The 49ers visit the Atlanta Falcons who mustered just 15 points last week. Sure, they got screwed at the end, but that doesn’t make them any more of a threat this time around. Kyle Shanahan is back in his old stomping grounds and facing a very vulnerable defense. I’m willing to bet he takes advantage of it in a big way.
The Pick: 49ers -4.5 (-110)
Why? Why do the Indianapolis Colts deserve our faith? They sentenced us to four hours of torture just 10 days ago. Matt Ryan is forgetting how to play quarterback in front of our very eyes. The offensive line has struggled. Superstar running back Jonathan Taylor and backup Nyheim Hines won’t be present. The Jaguars are better than their past two weeks would suggest, and at this point boast an easy quarterback advantage.
The Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-110)
Who are the best bets in the late afternoon slate?
Talk about a game that doesn’t need a bet to generate excitement. The Buffalo Bills visiting the Kansas City Chiefs is a playoff preview and the next chapter in a story of two legendary quarterbacks. We’re going to see just what this Bills defense is made of. Come January I’ll probably take Patrick Mahomes, but Josh Allen is on one right now. Give me the quarterback facing the lesser defense.
The Pick: Bills -2.5 (-115), Gabe Davis to Score a TD (+145)
Kyler Murray has put the Arizona Cardinals on his back repeatedly this year. Having to overcome poor performances, bad injury luck, and a sorry coaching staff is a lot to ask. Especially on the road. Especially against a division rival. Especially against the aforementioned Smith, who is cooking. I don’t trust Arizona to stop either facet of Seattle’s offense, and while the fireworks should be plenty, I think Murray’s luck runs short.
The Pick: Seahawks +2.5 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110)
Is there an uglier game on Sunday? The Los Angeles Rams just lost to a backup quarterback. The Carolina Panthers are starting one of their own. I wish I could confidently lie money on the reigning champions to cover against this dumpster fire of a franchise. Instead, I’m left wondering if the 41.5-point total will be met. Take Nick’s parlay and switch to watching another game, for your own sake.
The Pick: Panthers +10 (-110), Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 INT (-101)
What are the best NFL primetime bets?
Maybe the game of the week will be played in Kansas City, but its runner-up is in the City of Brotherly Love. The vibes are at an all-time high in Philadelphia, where its assortment of sports teams just don’t know how to lose. The Eagles should leave victorious, but this Dallas Cowboys defense must be respected. They’ve kept the team alive for the past month. Micah Parsons is the Jalen Hurts eraser. Expect him to keep things close Sunday night.
The Pick: Cowboys +6.5 (-110), Jalen Hurts Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Unstoppable force. Immovable object. Russell Wilson stinks out loud right now. The Los Angeles Chargers are a cursed franchise destined to smite their own superstar quarterback. Whatever your expectations are for this game, lessen them. Whether it be Joe Lombardi’s role as a sleeper agent or divine intervention, something will keep Los Angeles from running away with this. Maybe it will be Patrick Surtain plastered on an underperforming receiving corps.
The Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article features a plethora of against the spread (ATS) bets. This means a team must cover the spread in order to be successful. If a team is favored (say, Eagles -6.5) then their final score, minus six and a half, must be higher than Dallas’. On the other hand, the Cowboys’ score, plus six and a half, must be higher than Philadelphia’s. These odds are typically around -110, meaning an $100 bet would net $90.91 in profit. ATS bets are meant to be 50/50 shots, so make sure you have an edge before placing.