The ghost of Wally Pipp is as pissed as I am that the New York Yankees are still playing baseball. While I’ve turned my attention to the New York Jets and their hot start, Pipp has found himself 20 miles south of Fenway Park.
Heading into the year, New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson found himself behind 15-touchdown scorer Damien Harris on the depth chart. Entering Week 7 and following a Harris injury, it has become clear that Stevenson is the best back in Boston.
This is Stevenson’s backfield now.
A Matter of Expectations
Conversations about running backs typically revolve around finding explosive plays or consistent gains without setting back one’s passing offense. For New England, that means ensuring a limited passer like Mac Jones (or Bailey Zappe, apparently) stays ahead of the chains and away from 3rd & forever.
We can measure a back’s productivity by using Expected Points Added. A refresher can be found here, where we analyzed Saquon Barkley’s Comeback Player of the Year campaign.
In terms of EPA, Harris and Stevenson fare similarly—0.11 and 0.1 per rush, respectively. That’s good for fifth and sixth best amongst rushers with at least 30 carries. So, this isn’t to say the Patriots have struggled when Harris totes the rock.
However, a closer look at sustainability and effectiveness tell a different story. That aforementioned running back discourse is underlined by the notion that, frankly, running backs don’t matter. Offensive line performance and defensive box counts tell the story of a prospective running game more than the talent of a hypothetical rusher. Therefore, it’s important to isolate the back the best we can to see who is making a difference, if at all.
For that, we turn to Rushing Yard Over Expected, via Pro Football Focus. We can create a reasonable expectation for a running back given the field position, game situation, box count, and the success of the blocks in front of him. If a player exceeds that expectation, great! They are giving their team extra production, and are thus more valuable.
Stevenson’s RYOE/Attempt sits at 0.39, 14th in football. He’s sandwiched between Barkley and some guy you may have heard of named Nick Chubb. He’s firmly among the league’s elite right now, and even if the sample is a little small to crown him anything more than a pretty good football player, there’s merit to his strong start. Harris, on the other hand, has been below average in this category (-0.02). While they are extending drives at a similar rate, Stevenson’s run has been more impressive.
Think head coach Bill Belichick agrees? In Harris’ absence, Stevenson has carried the load. His 44 carries and 237 rushing yards, 20 less yards than Harris has all year. New England already prefers him on third down, and he’s proven himself useful in the red zone. Additionally, Stevenson has seen five targets in three games this season, a mark Harris has yet to surpass.
Rumors of a Harris trade haven’t been heard since this summer, but Stevenson’s play should make him available again. Stevenson provides more value, versatility, and potentially, production.
Is this circumstantial?
At times, running back stats can be skewed by the looks teams give them. For example, if a team runs both zone and gap runs, the open-field playmaker is more likely to see the latter. Their explosive skill set is magnified by these runs and while inconsistent, give backs the one-on-one matchups they desire. Other workhorses may be expected to deliver on a consistent basis, and see more zone concepts. If things break right, any run concept can deliver a big play, but there’s typically more immediate traffic to deal with here, so backs with better vision and footwork are preferred.
However, New England doesn’t see the same split as a team such as the Jacksonville Jaguars. Stevenson has run a zone concept on 64% of his rushes, while Harris sits at a hair under 60%. On the ground, they’ve been utilized similarly, making their comparison a bit easier.
They’ve faced 8+ man boxes at nearly identical rates, too.
Stevenson has been better as a north-south runner and has the same amount of yards after contact per attempt (2.4). There simply is not a facet of the game in which Harris holds too strong of an advantage.
New England is in prime position to roll out two quality backs or move the inferior for some extra draft capital. Playing the hot hand of Stevenson is the easy choice moving forward, beginning a separate question of Harris’ usage and future with the Patriots.