Week 11 NFC Rapid Reactions: Regression Has Arrived

Dak PrescottJalen HurtsJimmy GaroppoloKirk Cousins

The whimsical runs of the NFC’s leaders ended in #NFLWeek11. Underdogs covered, turnover luck ran dry, and the teams that could do no wrong were caught red-handed. At what point is it worth worrying about a bump in the road? When is it time to panic? Should you abandon your favorite #NFLbetting mainstays? Let’s go over what we learned from last week.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

It won’t end up counting in the loss column, but few in Philadelphia are feeling very good about Sunday’s action. Facing an out-matched and out-coached Indianapolis Colts team, the Eagles looked flat for the second week in a row. Their new additions on the defensive line looked promising, but this offense is starting to stall. Most importantly, Philly showed their hand with the game on the line. 

On their game-winning drive, the Eagles ran the ball on their final nine plays. They relied on Jalen Hurts’ legs, not his arm. It’s not a red flag or a sign of end times, but it very well could be an indictment. What happens when they fall behind to a better team? 🤔

Dallas Cowboys 40 – Minnesota Vikings 3

Oof. At least I picked that game right.

The Dallas Cowboys came into the Minnesota Vikings’ home turf and absolutely dismantled any semblance of intimidation their seven wins had provided. Minnesota now has a negative point differential, by the way.

All eyes were on Kirk Cousins, and when all eyes are on Cousins, bad things happen. In what may have been the ugliest game of his Minnesota tenure, CBS did us the favor of taking our eyes off of Cousins–changing the national broadcast to the Steelers game. By that point, it was too late. The Vikings are still legitimate, and even if their quarterback limits their ceiling, there’s no question of whether or not they’ll host a playoff game. Regardless, this week’s film 🎥 meetings won’t be fun. 

Dallas, on the other hand, has some questions left to answer. Questions that weren’t feasible after Dak Prescott went down in Week 1. Can they beat Philadelphia? Can they win the division? Can they win the Super Bowl?

The answer to each of those questions is “yes,” with decreasing degrees of certainty. They’ve got the quarterback, enough of a supporting cast, and one of the most dynamic defenses in the league. Their final destination won’t be a matter of talent, but coaching. FanDuel is currently offering +350 odds on the Cowboys to be champions of the NFC East, meaning a $100 bet wins an additional $350. If you want in on that action, you can use FanDuel’s promotion for BetBasics readers (NO SWEAT FIRST BET UP TO $1,000) and check out Dallas’ team page for relevant statistics and betting odds.

Detroit Lions 31 – New York Giants 18

So, the Detroit Lions have won three straight games. That’s cool. They’re still exactly who we thought they were, a team destined to cover from behind but cursed to falter when favored. Their defense has shown improvement in recent weeks (thank your creator for that one) and Detroit’s supporting cast has surpassed expectations as a whole. I think it’s safe to say Dan Campbell’s hot seat has cooled down. 🪑❄️

On the other sideline, our latest victim of regression to the mean. The New York Giants being 7-2 through Week 10 was like seeing a shootout in a Big Ten football game. It’s uncomfortable, and everyone wants things to go back to normal. Falling flat against an inferior Lions team is nature’s way of doing just that. Expect New York to struggle down the stretch, fumbling for the fleeting success of early fall.

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 10

The Arizona Cardinals forced future Jet Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them, and beat them he did. He threw for four touchdowns, no interceptions, and 7.9 yards per attempt en route to a blowout victory. Granted, the Cardinals stink like droppings in the Arizona heat (and were without their starting quarterback) but it’s hard not to be excited. Kyle Shanahan is in his bag and has surrounded Garoppolo with the best weapons possible. He’s been rewarded for doing so.

The story is always the same with San Francisco. Can their quarterback avoid self-destruction in the playoffs? History would suggest otherwise, but FanDuel’s +320 odds for them to reach the conference game offers us a lucrative balance. The 49ers would have to win two playoff games, rather than three or four. That’s a pretty fair price given how electric this offense has looked and their not-too-impossible path to the playoffs. 

BASIC TIPS

The 49ers and Cowboys bets presented in this piece are futures bets, which are wagers placed on more distant events. They offer more lucrative returns because there is inherently more uncertainty on a long term bet. Think about it, are you more confident in predicting tomorrow’s temperature or next month’s? Betting on futures is a balance between operating with enough information to feel confident and striking before the line moves in a less profitable direction.