Before trials and tribulations of adulthood, a child is faced with a more fearsome foe–vegetables. The contest that capped off the action of #NFLWeek12 was the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Indianapolis Colts. We prepared for the worst. Brussel sprouts, mushrooms, more fumbles than touchdowns, the whole nine yards. Instead, we got a slightly better game than anticipated. Insert your favorite salad and the analogy is complete. 🥦
It wasn’t a steak dinner, but the Steelers’ 24-17 victory was a fine way to end our Monday. More importantly, it marked the best game of Kenny Pickett’s young career. Was it a flash in the pan of an otherwise unremarkable rookie season, or a launching pad for the passer’s development?
How well did Pickett play on Monday night?
Pickett’s night ended in victory formation and played host to a level of comfort we haven’t seen since his days at Pitt. He was 20/28 for 174 yards through the air and ran for an additional 32 yards on the ground. It was his third consecutive game without a turnover, a streak that began at the bye week.
He was both effective and efficient. Pittsburgh only punted four times, and his only “drive-killing” plays (interceptions, fumbles, or sacks) were the three times he was sacked. He kept the chains moving and avoided disaster despite the Colts playing pretty well defensively. ⛓⏩
Additionally, Pickett’s 2.1 Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). This is reassuring given his air yards, which we’ll touch on later. Pro Football Focus also gave him the second highest passing grade of the week, behind only Lamar Jackson. He wasn’t asked to do all that much, but he kept the Steelers ahead of schedule.
Should we buy the Steelers’ offense?
Before truly buying into Pittsburgh’s rookie-year renaissance, a couple of concerns persist. For one, the sample size of one game and 28 attempts isn’t enough to crown anyone, regardless of performance. He’s still the worst passer in the league in terms of ANY/A, largely due to a lack of touchdowns. If this is anywhere close to his ceiling from a production standpoint, the Steelers are in trouble.
Good thing it doesn’t have to be that way. 😉
Pickett was limited to 5.8 air yards per attempt, rendering him non-threatening to the vertical areas of the field. His season average is a “better,” but still pedestrian 7.2 yards. Essentially, you can have success with a wide range of average air yards, but successful passes downfield are obviously more conducive to scoring. Being effective from range is more impressive, too. Dak Prescott and Jimmy Garoppolo have incredible similar efficiency numbers, yet the former averages 1.4 more air yards per attempt. No one in their right mind prefers Garoppolo.
With that said, I’m not writing off Pickett for attacking easier windows. Against a poor Atlanta Falcons defense, there’s room for Pickett to strike again. 👀
DraftKings is offering +120 odds on the Steelers to clear 2.5 touchdowns, meaning a $100 bet nets $120 in profit. An encouraging performance from Pittsburgh’s offense combined with a friendly matchup and domed stadium help me feel confident in this one. Development isn’t linear, but there’s ample opportunity for Pickett to take another step in the right direction. If you want in on that action, be sure to use their promotion for BetBasics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
If he does so, DraftKings’ +110 odds on the Steelers surpassing 6.5 wins will likely be a thing of the past. With three divisional matchups remaining and matchups against rather meager Falcons, Panthers, and Raiders, we should give Mike Tomlin the benefit of the doubt. Especially if he’s going to get better quarterback play.