The regular season does a really good job of weeding out the unworthy. The best seven teams in each conference earn the right to the unforgiving circuit of January football. In terms of finding the best of the best, the playoffs do an immaculate job. The “fraudulent” teams exceeding expectations saw their hopes end by the Divisional Round’s conclusion. The good, not great, teams got shown the door, too. The Buffalo Bills had holes a superstar quarterback couldn’t patch up. The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t put it together when it mattered most.
Now, four teams remain. Arguably the three best rosters in the sport and the current generation’s nomination for the GOAT, battling for the ultimate accomplishment. Sunday’s festivities will showcase heartbreak and jubilation. Which side will we fall on?
*All odds via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
What are the best bets for the NFC conference game?
There’s no denying Kyle Shanahan’s mastery. His San Francisco 49ers haven’t lost since October. He has held the hand of seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy on his way to the NFC Conference Round. Backed with an elite roster, this will be San Francisco’s toughest test to date. Can they win the big one before the big one?
Favored by 2.5 points, the Philadelphia Eagles are as feisty as their fans and as talented as any team in the sport. Jalen Hurts’ rise to prominence has been spectacular, but not without first-class assistance. Boasting both an elite offensive line and a lethal pair of wide receivers, it’s hard to find reasons for Hurts to fail.
Simply put, I’m taking the Eagles to cover because I trust their quarterback more. Purdy’s run has been cute, but there’s a certain amount of luck in dropped interceptions and production despite early-down struggles.
At some point, Shanahan will fall the same way every playoff run has during his tenure in San Francisco: his quarterback will fail to execute when it matters most. If you’re on board, you can take that bet to Caesars using their promotion for Bet Basics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
As for how the rest of the game plays out, I expect the 49ers to lean on the run game, however, that may occur on later downs rather than earlier. They’ll likely manufacture touches to Christian McCaffrey on key third downs.
While in the end I have them coming up short, their defense should still stifle the Philadelphia offense. Anticipate a suppression of offense over the middle of the field and a reliance on individual advantages on the outside. Make no mistake, the 49ers will generate pressure on Sunday. It’ll be on Hurts to mitigate damage and create explosive plays in the face of it.
The Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-120)
The Winner: Eagles (-155)
Total: Under 46 (-110)
Touchdown Prop: A.J. Brown (+135)
Passing Prop: Jalen Hurts Under 250.5 (-117)
Rushing Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 58.5 (-111)
Receiving Prop: Dallas Goedert Under 46.5 (-103)
Who will cover in the AFC conference game?
The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-0 in the Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes saga. I couldn’t care less. They are statistically independent events and shouldn’t have a significant impact on how you wager your money.
With +100 odds to win, a $100 bet on the Bengals would net $100 in profit if they were to win the conference for a second time. There’s reason to believe in Burrow running it back.
For one, their roster is better. Aside from the offensive line, tight end, and generating pressure up the middle, Cincinnati is more talented. They’re also deeper, reaping the benefits of a quarterback on a rookie contract. The Bengals have the defensive weapons to combat Travis Kelce and their secret weapon calling the shots. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo may be the best in the sport at limiting elite quarterbacks.
Now he’s facing one on a bum ankle. Mahomes’ ankle will likely be ailing regardless of his injury status. How much it will affect the game plan is yet to be seen, but if he can’t effectively run play action from under center, the Bengals will be on the hunt. Mahomes will have to be exceptional in the quick game to counter a strong Cincinnati run defense. Anything less than perfection makes third and longs more likely. Even the best in the world would prefer to play ahead of the sticks.
I’m not overly concerned about the Bengals’ injuries up front, either. Burrow is simply incredible at mitigating pressure early in the play. And if they do find themselves in precarious situations, I trust their weapons to pull off the impossible a lot more than Kansas City’s.
Finally, both defenses have had this prospective date circled for some time now. The defensive deployment will be a joy to study, but with two quarterbacks of this stature, I can’t bring myself to take the under. Would you want to root against scoring in a game this good?
The Pick: Bengals +1.5 (-110)
The Winner: Bengals (+100)
Total: Over 48 (-110)
Touchdown Prop: Jerick McKinnon (+160)
Passing Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions (-121)
Rushing Prop: Isaiah Pacheco Under 48.5 (+100)
Receiving Prop: Tyler Boyd Over 3.5 Receptions (+116)
BASIC TIPS
This article is centered around against the spread (ATS) bets. These bets require teams to cover a spread. Favorites, like the Chiefs, must win by at least two points to cover and satisfy the requirements of the bet. Its inverse, Bengals +1.5 means they must avoid losing by two or more points. With spreads as small as 1.5 points, it could be more worthwhile to bet on the underdog’s moneyline and sacrifice the spread for more lucrative odds.