The Buffalo Bills have the second-most talented quarterback on the face of the planet. Aaron Rodgers is (Almost? Kind of?) a New York Jet. Yet, the team with the AFC East’s third-best quarterback and fourth-best fanbase has swam under the radar. The Miami Dolphins hold one of the best value bets around.
Highway Robbery: Jalen Ramsey
Getting younger on defense is one thing. Getting faster is another. Getting better? That’s a whole ‘nother ball game. Miami did just that.
Among the favorites to land Jalen Ramsey’s services were the Las Vegas Raiders, Detroit Lions, and Cincinnati Bengals. Instead, he heads to South Beach. He replaces Byron Jones, who missed all of last season. Without Jones, Miami scuffled to a bottom 10 pass defense by dropback EPA/Play. Sure, their downfall was the health and safety of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but he’ll be back.
A stronger defense will be significant in returning to the playoffs. The fastest way to get there, of course, is by winning one’s division.
The Dolphins traded a third-round pick—77th overall—and tight end Hunter Long. In two seasons, he has a single catch to his name.
Clearly, Ramsey’s impending cap hits scared teams worse than a mother finding a rotten report card. For no one to pony up anything more than a three for a certifiably elite cornerback makes little sense, but it happened, and the rest of the AFC East must deal with it.
Now paired with Xavien Howard, Miami has likely the best duo of run supporting corners in the sport. Not bad for a couple of cornerbacks with 47 combined interceptions. Miami is returning one of the most explosive offenses in football and a defense stocked with other stars—Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb, and Jevon Holland to name a few.
However, the odds haven’t adjusted well enough. Maybe it’s a lack of confidence in Tagovailoa’s durability, or a potential lack of adjustments from a sophomore head coach.
There’s a reason Buffalo is the favorite (+130) at just about every book available. Yet, I think it’s fair to say they haven’t optimized their chances of succeeding with Allen. They’ve relied on no-shows at Z and slot receiver, Allen to carry the run game, and a defense that struggled down the stretch. What move are they making to catapult themselves to that next tier? If one isn’t made, a Wild Card berth isn’t out of the question.
The Jets, on the other hand, made their move. The wheels-in-motion Rodgers trade has rendered them the most hyped team in football, and the odds agree. They’ve skyrocketed to +180 on Caesars, while FanDuel’s +230 line (win $230 on a $100 bet) is the best available. Yet, we don’t know what the offensive line is going to look like, their pass rush is still questionable, and Rodgers is an aging quarterback who showed signs of decline. A step up from anything this century? Sure. But they’re closer to the Chargers than the Chiefs.
The best value in the AFC East remains Miami at +375. A tough division can hinder the ceiling of the Bills, making them a realistic target. They’ll compete for the best defense in the division, and a playmaker like Ramsey can be truly game-breaking. It provides them with versatility, depth, and most importantly, an upgrade in the talent department. The biggest question from there will be just how much speed matters on the offensive side of the ball.
No one should be implying that the Dolphins are favorites or particularly close to it, but they are putting together a roster with equivalent upside and Caesars is giving bettors an opportunity to take advantage of it.