See you next year, Scott Hanson. Gone are the days of a dozen games on Sunday. We’ve ushered out the unworthy for the elite and the lucky few aiming to unseat them. #NFLWeek18 may have done more for the draft order than the playoff seeding, but the next month isn’t for the mock drafters, it’s for the Super Bowl dreamers.
Unfortunately, for a few of the teams still preparing for the NFC circuit, Sunday could have gone better. The engine light is on. Is it worth going under the hood?
Washington Commanders 26 – Dallas Cowboys 6
Week 18 might have been the worst game of Dak Prescott’s career. With an (eventually nullified) chance at the NFC’s top seed, the Dallas Cowboys sputtered to a halt. Prescott looked off and, not so surprisingly, his compatriots followed suit.
He threw his league-leading 15th interception, too. It’s a number that has done terrible things to Dallas discourse and doesn’t tell the full story. If interceptions are symptoms of a more severe illness, your team has a quarterback problem. If they’re the only blemishes on an otherwise elite passing attack, they exist only to uphold bad arguments.
Prescott won’t throw Monday night’s game away against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on his own. If the Cowboys’ offense falls short, it will be a manifestation of mistakes made on critical third and fourth downs. Mistakes made because the early-down offense wasn’t good enough.
Interceptions be damned. Let your franchise quarterback win you a playoff game. Supplanting the run with quick passes will be key in both winning and covering the three-point spread FanDuel has set for them. At -104 odds, a $104 bet would net $100 in profit.
As for the Washington Commanders, it was the Sam Howell show. Asking a quarterback-hungry fan to acknowledge a small-sample size bias is like asking a kid not to search the house for Christmas gifts. Expect the Howell hype to persist well into the offseason, regardless of what veteran is asked to commandeer the offense. We haven’t seen the last of him.
Philadelphia Eagles 22 – New York Giants 16
Two things were abundantly clear in the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 18 victory. They knew Jalen Hurts gave them the best possible chance to capture the one seed. They also knew an injured Hurts would send them home early.
The Eagles trotted Hurts out there, as they should have, and officially clinched home field advantage. Those dirty birds won in somewhat ugly fashion against the backups from an already questionable roster and yet I find myself not caring.
It’s hard to play with intensity when your opponent is resting their key players. It’s also hard to win when your quarterback’s first priority was to not get hurt. Yet, they controlled the game in its entirety, holding their win probability above 90% for virtually 60 minutes.
Mission accomplished. Philadelphia has earned their bye and their star quarterback can continue to rest up. Regardless of the score or the circumstance, life is good in Philly. See you in two weeks.
The New York Giants, on the other hand, have themselves a game this Sunday. It’s a winnable one, too. New York almost beat the Minnesota Vikings just a few weeks ago, and are now in line for revenge. Coming off their de facto bye week, the task is simple: just keep doing what you’re doing. Head coach Brian Daboll has succeeded in making the Giants an annoying team to play against and frankly sometimes that is enough.
That in itself should keep this one close, despite a pretty drastic drop off in talent. Expect this one to stay close throughout, keeping New York +3 a valid option. If you’re feeling frisky, take those pesky Giants with FanDuel’s unique promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.
Seattle Seahawks 19 – Los Angeles Rams 16
I’ve been on the Geno Smith train since I posed the question before Week 1, asking what to make of this team if their quarterback does not stink.
It turns out he didn’t just not stink, he became the Seattle Seahawks’ single-season passing leader. Smith’s story is incredible, but I’d be lying if I said we haven’t reached the conflict portion of his plot diagram.
Seattle has struggled in recent weeks, in part due to turnover-happy play from their quarterback, no matter how excusable they’ve been. Still, he has dutifully answered the question of “can he get them to the playoffs?”
Now, against an elite San Francisco 49ers’ defense that has stifled the Seahawks twice already, he’ll be asked to step up once again. Vegas has favored the Niners by 10 and put their odds at a Super Bowl appearance at +200. They’ve implied Smith’s story ends here.
It’s up to him to keep writing.
Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 16
Dan Campbell, thank you for your service. The feel-good story in Seattle is not complete without our midwestern friends stepping up in the wake of elimination. The Seahawks eliminated the Detroit Lions with their win on Sunday. They needed a Lions win to clinch that final spot.
It would’ve been easy for Detroit to lie down in dejection after their season ended. Instead, they stuck it to the Green Bay Packers and gave the country a moment of unity. When Aaron Rodgers loses, America wins.
Neither the Packers nor the Lions have a game this weekend, or next weekend, or any weekend until some exhibitions in August. For them, answering questions at the quarterback position will take priority.
Will the Lions take a quarterback with the sixth overall pick? Will Green Bay finally pivot to Jordan Love? Will Rodgers don the green and yellow again?
While the rest of us enjoy playoff football, they’ll be having some very difficult conversations. Let’s be thankful it’s not our asses on the line.
BASIC TIPS
Many bets you’ll see throughout the playoffs will be futures bets: wagers that correspond to an event down the line, such as the Super Bowl or the first pick in the NFL draft. They offer longer odds than against the spread of (favorited) moneylines due to the gap of time between placing a bet and seeing it pay out. With time comes uncertainty and the chance that your bet goes awry. Accurate futures bets are lucrative, but it’s important to play responsibly and operate with enough information.