Well, well, well. If it isn’t the consequences of Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard’s actions.
As it turns out, trading significant assets for a turnstile of veteran quarterbacks is not conducive to winning football. Benching Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger didn’t rectify his mistakes, either. Without proper quarterback play, the leak in the ceiling has now flooded the room. Ballard needed a fall guy to stay afloat amidst the rising water. Indianapolis fired Frank Reich on Monday and has since hired former Colts center Jeff Saturday in his place.
Saturday has never coached above the high school level. Now, he’s leading a group of grown men towards the cellar of an unimpressive AFC South 📉.
Was it not enough that they fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady before Reich? The NFL is in need of minority coaches, and game experience is invaluable. Instead of affording that opportunity to Brady, a separate minority candidate, or literally anyone with coaching experience and a pulse, they chose fan service. This isn’t Star Wars. This is the NFL.
How does the Jeff Saturday hire affect our bets?
Look, I can’t sit here and tell you Saturday will be the worst coach his division has ever seen. That’d be impossible, given Urban Meyer’s most recent stint. Regardless, I don’t know how this will play out, only that it was a bad process.
For what it’s worth, DraftKings is offering -120 odds on Indianapolis to fall under six wins. In this event, hitting a half-dozen would result in a push, where you’d get your money back. If it hits, a $100 bet would turn into $83.33 in profit. If you’re looking to sign up for DraftKings, you can use their promotion for BetBasics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.
In order to lose money on this bet, the Colts would need to win four of their remaining eight contests. Sure, they get Houston and Pittsburgh at home, but who else will they even keep it close with? The Raiders? The Giants? There are few safer win totals bets than the under on Indianapolis.
Furthermore, there’s a game to be played on Sunday. How can this hire help us for #NFLWeek10? Infiltrating our late-afternoon window is Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders. God help us. Despite Las Vegas’ struggles to move the ball and even play football after halftime, six points is not enough for me to take Indianapolis. The Raiders should win this game by multiple scores, and at -105, there’s fine value 💸 on the black and silver. Indianapolis’ defense is poor in neutral game scripts and they just incinerated any semblance of a locker room (I say, from my bed in New Jersey).
You can lock Raiders -6 into my Friday picks column. Until they prove otherwise, the Colts are just as bad as any team in football.
BASIC TIPS
Win totals bets can be especially tricky, given that the “any given Sunday” mantra can quickly spoil projections. It’s best to take these bets when you have room for error. For example, Indianapolis must go 4-4 in order to lose the bet (unless the line moves to 5.5) and 3-5 gives us our money back. It’s reasonable to expect this team to beat, say, the Steelers and Texans, who have quarterback…issues of their own 🥴. Even if the Colts win both (far from a guarantee), they’ll have to beat either the Raiders or a team currently in possession of a playoff spot to push, and two games to spoil it. That seems unlikely for an organization in such turmoil, so I’m confident placing that wager.