“The more things change the more things stay the same.” For the New Orleans Saints, Bon Jovi’s words reign true now more than ever. Drew Brees is now multiple years into retirement, Sean Payton has stepped down, and key contributors have found new homes. Yet, they evade the salary cap and the idea that playoff windows do indeed close.
The Saints are in a good position to play January football once again. Now led by head coach (and former defensive coordinator) Dennis Allen, New Orleans is primed to repeat as the consistent defense they’ve been. In a league where offense is king and defensive consistency is as elusive as a well-refereed game, the advantages that their quarters defense has provided them cannot be overstated.
This notion of familiarity carries over to the offense as well. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael has been a constant throughout the Payton administration and has earned the right to continue in his role. With Payton out of the picture, we may see some new wrinkles, but expect the structure of the offense to remain.
What will the Saints offense look like?
Quarterback Jameis Winston played well, posting elite EPA marks before falling victim to injury in Week 8. No longer is the circus act of a quarterback discovering new ways to throw interceptions. In a simpler, quicker offense than Bruce Arians’ offense in Tampa Bay, Winston was able to look like a polished game manager with flashes of brilliance. No longer is he the biggest question on his offense
That title now belongs to the left tackle position. Star left tackle Terron Armstead departed for Miami this offseason, cracking the foundation of what’s been a perpetually strong offensive line. A core of Andrus Peat, Erik McKoy, Cesar Ruiz, and Ryan Ramczyk is still a good start, but it’s possible porous left tackle play can sink the unit.
Hence, New Orleans took Northern Iowa tackle and professional trouble maker, Trevor Penning in the draft’s first round. While it’s possible that Penning returns sometime this season, a preseason injury has knocked him out of action for a couple months. James Hurst will start in his absence. Effectively ending the training camp battle, Penning’s injury, and at times, performance, may lessen one’s confidence in the Saints.
However, New Orleans has done a good job of bringing in and retaining talent. Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave brings a new dimension to their downfield attack and they’ll have a healthy Michael Thomas for the first time in years. The last time that was the case, he caught approximately seven million passes en route to the NFL single-season record.
Gauging how much things have changed in the French Quarter, and how much they matter, will be critical in projecting success for this Saints team.
The Saints through a betting lens
Consider me in on New Orleans. The coaching staff is both familiar and excellent and the roster has a ton of upper-level talent. A full year of Winston quarterbacking will give us some head-scratching moments, but he’s become legitimately underrated. As long as he’s a top 20 passer, they’ll be in the thick of things. Anything better is a bonus. Their schedule gives me pause, but 8.5 isn’t too terrible of a bar to clear. The Saints are one of my favorite overs to take in 2022.
New Orleans is one of the handful of teams squarely in the middle of the projected playoff hunt, but without a true MVP candidate. One could argue this severely limits the possibility of a deep playoff run. Anyhow, Thomas’ healthy return is the biggest change from last year’s roster. Set at only 70.5 receptions on DraftKings, his season-long receptions line is surprisingly low. Nobody expects him to be the demigod he was just a few years ago. Still, he’s the clear no. 1 on a decent offense. He shouldn’t be projected for less receptions than Jerry Jeudy.
With Thomas back, another layer of comfort is present to help Winston. His passing touchdown line is at 25.5, per DraftKings. While it’s a little harder to dive in without knowledge of a potential Alvin Kamara suspension, it’s a total low enough to buy.
On the other side of the ball, the Honey Badger makes a strong argument for his personal over. DraftKings has given him -125 odds to clear 2.5 interceptions. He’s done that in each of the last three years and four times in his career. Tyrann Mathieu should have opportunities aplenty to rob boundary receivers in quarters. He’s a playmaker through and through and gets to play in a defense that should consistently pressure the passer.
Moreover, New Orleans’ rookie of the year may have a national backing by season’s end. Olave is pro-ready and a dangerous deep threat from day one. He’ll be the deep option on flood concepts and the team’s primary downfield target. This lends itself to splash plays and some pretty gaudy volume stats. With no rookie quarterback starting Week 1, a big year from Olave can put him in serious contention for OROY. DraftKings has his odds at +1000.
The BetBasics Best Bet also has to do with Olave. DraftKings is offering a pre-built team special parlay for the Saints. If Olave leads the rookies in receiving yards and New Orleans is a wildcard team, you could cash in on +1400 odds. Olave is the best rookie bet for instant production given his profile, scheme fit, and surrounding cast. The rest of this roster is playoff-worthy, even if they fall behind Tampa. Parlays are a dangerous game but the value of this one deserves serious consideration.
It seems the Saints will survive in the absence of Payton. Their high floor ensures meaningful games will continue to be played in the Superdome. Nobody likes change, but sometimes it’s for the best. If Carmichael’s offense takes Payton’s foundation that much farther or Allen proves he has learned from prior head coaching experience, the shake ups so many were scared of will become a distant memory.
New Orleans deserves our praise. Faced with a shocking head coach exit and a turbulent offseason, few would have blamed them for bottoming out. Instead, they kept themselves relevant and maintained the pieces of the organizational infrastructure that have kept everything running for so long. Good organizations stay good, bad organizations stay bad. Another playoff appearance for the Saints will certify that organizational standing.