If you love somebody, let them go…
The Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson were that one couple that we’ve all seen run their course in real time. High school sweethearts were love at first sight. They made the rest of us jealous, giving false hope that each incident of puppy love was our very own love story.
Then came the first fight, an argument over the division of responsibilities. Soon after, one felt the other was limiting their potential. They couldn’t break up though. What would everybody think? The two remained fiercely loyal, deteriorating in front of us. Sure, they had their moments, but everyone knew they’d never be the same.
Eventually, the unimaginable became very real. Rumors of a split began, and though they wouldn’t admit it, denying such an accusation grew continuously burdensome. They never cheated on each other, and in some ways those adolescent feelings will always remain, but it was time to go their separate ways.
The Wilson Era is over
Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant, and Drew Lock.
There’s no question Seattle is in the midst of a rebuild. Their 7-10 record from 2021 feels like the ceiling for this team, especially in a competitive NFC West. But with rebuilds come assumptions. And with the current Seahawks regime, we can guarantee they don’t matter.
Lock, the young passer, isn’t starting. The supporting cast is ripe for a new quarterback, featuring multiple young tackles that continue to impress and a veteran interior offensive line. They remain heavily invested in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The defense has its warts but plays host to quality playmakers as well.
What we’re left with is Geno Smith and a dream.
Another assumption we typically make is that the quarterback in a rebuild is either young or bad. We’ve labeled Smith the latter, but is it fair?
Among the 43 quarterbacks with as many plays as Smith in 2021 (120), Smith ranked second in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) at 6.5% and his Estimated Points Added (EPA) per play ranked 26th. Maybe he wasn’t good, but can we truly write him off? With a better supporting cast, reps with the ones, and a coaching staff willing to trust him if he keeps them in games, Seattle could find themselves in a better place than most anticipate.
Seattle through a betting lens
The story of the 2022 Seattle Seahawks, from an entertainment standpoint, has become increasingly clear as the preseason waned.
What if Smith doesn’t stink?
To start, Seattle has never played a normal game in franchise history. There aren’t odds on it, but it’s a lock to continue, no pun intended. They’ll continue to find themselves in the weirdest of situations, and somehow find themselves alive before taking some future crypto scammer with their first pick.
I do think there’s a good shot Smith is better than the bottom of the barrel expectations set for him. I’m not convinced it means much of anything. FanDuel’s win total resides at 5.5, with +115 on the under. Six wins is more than reasonable for a half-decent squad with questionable quarterback play. Unfortunately, in such a tough division, optimism is hard to trust.
Moreover, Metcalf has stepped in as the face of the franchise since Wilson’s departure. He’s signed an extension and has already proven he’s a bit more than his scouting report reads. Still, we shouldn’t be too confident in him breaking 900.5 yards. Taking the under means siding with the risks of Smith and his fit with Metcalf. If he struggles to push the ball downfield, a large chunk of production will fall quicker than Metcalf’s stock after his 3-cone.
If Smith outperforms expectations, though, it won’t be Metcalf who benefits. It will be Lockett. Lockett was targeted abundantly during Smith’s audition in 2021. He’s more nuanced and creative than Metcalf, sneaking in production both in and out of structure. He freestyles with the best of them and can create big plays for Smith better than anyone else.
FanDuel is offering -112 odds on Lockett breaking 800.5 yards. That’s 50 less yards than DraftKings. Take advantage of the gap and hope Lockett develops chemistry with Smith just like he did Wilson.
Elsewhere, Jordyn Brooks has blossomed into a nice player. He led the league in solo tackles last year and could benefit from Bobby Wagner’s intradivision switch. Brooks moves well and has been largely identified as a rising star on Seattle’s defense. I like the over on him breaking 135.5 tackles+assists from DraftKings (-115).
Alongside him will be the rookie Boye Mafe. Listed at +6000 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mafe is my favorite deep sleeper for DROY. The starting spot is not yet his and he’s dealt with some health issues, but the dude can rush the passer. There’s only so long you can keep a talent like his off the field. If he can find opportunities early, the sacks will come and so will the hype. From there, it’s just about cementing himself as the top edge from his class, despite his draft capital.
The BetBasics Best Bet sounds familiar if you’ve followed the Seahawks. Pete Carroll and running the football go better than red Gatorade and dessert (don’t knock it ‘til you try it). Carroll has actually “let Russ cook” more often than one would imagine given the criticism he’s received on Twitter. Regardless, he likes to run the ball, and Rashaad Penny’s late-season festivities rendered him the top back in this offense. BetMGM is offering +100 odds on the back to break 6.5 rushing touchdowns. Given his projected volume and the offense’s philosophy, it’s a fairly safe wager.
All in all, the Seahawks very much embody the city they play in. When the rest of the league zigs, they zag. When the rest of the league decides box safeties aren’t worth spending on, they send two first-rounders for one. It is not always easy to put your finger on the pulse of this organization.
The stubbornness of the front office to not truly tank, the strengths of the roster, and the potential of their 31-year-old quarterback have led fans into a frenzy. Predictable yet inconceivable. Inevitable and absurd. They’re the Seattle Seahawks and they don’t give a damn about what’s supposed to happen. Let’s get weird.