Merry Christmas from your friends at Bet Basics! Our gift from the National Football League comes a little early this year, with a 11-game slate on Christmas Eve. They’ll save three games for the holiday’s main course, too, so we get an entire weekend of football.
If you’re like me, you didn’t take advantage of enough Black Friday sales, and run up costs on gifts. Can we win some of that back this weekend?
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
Who’s covering in Saturday’s early window?
The Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, two teams we all expected to be jostling for playoff spots in #NFLWeek16. Lions Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson is the hottest name in the coaching carousel subsequent to his optimization of this offense. Jared Goff is playing well, and the results have followed: they rank 5th in dropback EPA/Play en route to the 9th highest EPA/Play in football. I like Steve Wilks’ Panthers defense a lot, but I trust the Lions to stay hot amidst the cold weather.
The Pick: Lions -2.5 (-115)
This one could get ugly. Derrick Henry has trampled the Houston Texans before, but Ryan Tannehill’s injury has put Malik Willis back under center. His first start came in Houston, a 17-10 victory. However, nothing about that game or his snaps since have given me confidence in the passing offense. Having seen him before, the Texans know they can solely focus on Henry. Now, that may not be enough. However, the Tennessee Titans are scuffling, losers of four straight. The sky is falling in Nashville. Take advantage of it.
The Pick: Texans +3 (+100)
The Chicago Bears have developed a bad habit: wasting quality performances from Justin Fields. Every week we get a new impossible run from the wonderboy, and every week it seems the Bears find a way to lose. Against a really good Buffalo Bills team, Chicago is primed to fall short once again. 😔
The Pick: -8 (-110)
The Seattle Seahawks badly need a win. The Kansas City Chiefs are their final test against a viable team before a potential playoff run. The Chiefs are the league’s best team, and Seattle very well could lose this game. But with everything on the line, they should be able to keep things close. They have the quarterback to put up points and Kansas City is prone to turning the ball over. Frankly, 10 points is too many to pass up.
The Pick: Seahawks +10 (-110), Geno Smith Over 22.5 Completions (-131)
Joe Burrow gets the privilege of playing the league’s best pass defense on Saturday. It’s a big test for an offense that has been on fire since Week 9 🔥. There’s very much an “unstoppable force vs immovable object” aspect to this game, with Mac Jones’ quarterbacking running interference. Unfortunately for the New England Patriots, they are utterly incapable of beating a good quarterback. Until they prove they can do it, bet on the better quarterback.
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-110)
With a win, the New York Giants would almost guarantee a playoff berth. The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, don’t have much to play for–the division is locked up and the No. 1 seed dreams have vanished in recent weeks. With how sloppy Minnesota has been and the rise of Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Giants will have an opportunity to win this game. Dexter Lawrence against the interior offensive line will be the deciding factor in this game.
The Pick: Giants +4 (-110), Daniel Jones Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
No game has more variance to its fun potential than any other game this week. Absolutely below freezing temperatures and wind gusts of over 60 mph will make throwing the ball downfield incredibly difficult. This game has a totals projection of 32! Given their experience in cold weather games, I like the Cleveland Browns to truly use home field advantage. The Browns have -105 odds to cover, which means a $105 wager would win $100 if successful. 🥶
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The Pick: Browns -3 (-105)
The cold weather has spread across the country, submerging the east coast in unbearably cold temperatures. That spreads to Baltimore, where we get a matchup between two backup quarterbacks. With a totals projection of 34.5, the weather should combine with questionable quarterbacking to keep this game low-scoring. Additionally, in these types of games, I’m uneasy about taking the favorite to cover a larger spread. 😰
For more on covering spreads, be sure to check out the Basic Tips section below.
The Pick: Falcons +6.5 (-110)
Who will win the later games on Saturday?
From a pure talent perspective, this game isn’t particularly close. San Francisco has a top two non-quarterback roster in the sport, and the coach to match. With the Washington Commanders In desperate need of a win, this game is in many ways similar to Seattle’s–down to the playoff spot they are fighting for. Like Seattle, I’m more confident in this game staying close, even if it does not result in a win. Expect a big day from Washington’s defensive front.
The Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-115)
By virtue of the current playoff race and a Jalen Hurts injury, we’ve been robbed of a Game of the Year candidate. Instead, we get Gardner Minshew against the Dallas Cowboys. Opening at Philadelphia Eagles +6.5, I liked the birds, but the line movement concerns me. At this point, I think Dak Prescott gets revenge for the game he missed early in the year and sets the record straight, albeit with an asterisk. Let’s hope these two meet in January.
The Pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-110)
Who is covering on Saturday Night Football?
Our lone primetime game may get turned off when the kids open their one early present. The Pittsburgh Steelers remain uninteresting, now essentially eliminated and still without a threat at quarterback. I had a snarky remark lined up for the Las Vegas Raiders, but I’ll have to save it for when they inevitably lose us money. The Raiders have been really good against the run, which Pittsburgh will likely turn to given their passers and the weather conditions. If Derek Carr can pretend to be a good quarterback for a few quarters, they should end Pittsburgh’s longshot playoff aspirations.
The Pick: Raiders +2 (-110)
What are the best bets for Christmas Day?
In what is a crucial matchups for teams currency set to spectate the AFC playoffs, the Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers. Last time Mike McDaniel faced a former boss, it didn’t end well. This time, it should go better. The Dolphins were able to keep things close against a great Bills team, despite the frigid cold and various snowballs. The Packers’ ability to run the ball will be a challenge, but a good enough start could render that concern nullified.
The Picks: Dolphins -3.5 (-110)
Every week the Denver Broncos get put on our television screens is another week where I wish for baseball season to start. They are brutally unwatchable, and somehow find ways to play bad quarterbacks to make the viewing experience that much worse. This week, it’s Baker Mayfield and the Los Angeles Rams. Go prepare Christmas dinner or just spend time with your family. It will be much more worthwhile. 🤮
The Pick: Broncos -3 (-115)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost to four quarterbacks that did not start Week 1. That should be illegal when your quarterback is as good as he is. Nevertheless, they get an opportunity to add to that mark on Sunday. Trace McSorely is in line to start for the Arizona Cardinals, which could lead to some throwbacks from Kliff Kingsbury. Back to a time when the plays he called actually worked. I think Tampa, for once this year, doesn’t embarrass themselves in front of everyone.
The Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 (-110)
Which team will cover on Monday Night Football?
The Los Angeles Chargers will cover on Monday night. Four points? Against a Jeff Saturday-led team that’s starting Nick Foles? I know the Chargers like to underperform, but really?
The Pick: Chargers -4 (-110), Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-166)
BASIC TIPS
This article mostly features against the spread (ATS) bets. A successful bet means the team you selected “covers.” If they are a favorite, denoted with a (-) next to the spread, they must win by more than that spread. If they are underdogs, they can either win or lose by less than the spread. For example, in order to cover, the Buccaneers must win by eight or more points. If not, the Cardinals will have covered.