Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
The AFC East has produced several of the best rivalries in the league with the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills fitting the bill with a history of almost 120 games played against one another. Dan Marino and Tua Tagovailoa are Dolphins’ players in the mix while the Bills have sported the likes of Bruce Smith, Josh Allen, and Stefan Diggs. What was once a series completely dominated by Miami has turned the other way as of late with the Bills finally putting together strong teams to compete with other franchises in the division. As with any other divisional rivalry, these games are bitter battles between players, coaches, and fans alike, but there’s money to be made here. Yes, that’s right! If you’re interested in how to make some cash on the Dolphins versus the Bills, just keep on reading.
The history of this series dates back more than 56 years ago to 1966 when it opened up with the Bills doling out a 58-24 thrashing to the Dolphins and then kicked their butts again the second time they played later on that season, 29-0. Obviously, that didn’t bode well for the beginning of this rivalry nor did it make matters any better in the 1970s when Miami hired head coach Don Shula who would go on to become the winningest coach in NFL history. See, it was during that time that the Dolphins would take full control over the series, at one point winning 20 games in a row against the Bills! Buffalo would turn it around in the early ‘90s when head coach Marv Levy would lead the team to four consecutive Super Bowls behind quarterback Jim Kelly and defensive superstar Bruce Smith.
Two games stand out among the rest in this series, both playoff games from the early ‘90s starring Kelly and Marino. The first game was a 44-34 Buffalo win in the 1990 AFC Divisional Playoffs in which both QBs combined to throw 662 yards and six TD passes. A few years later, the teams would meet with higher stakes in the 1992 AFC Championship Game except it would be all Buffalo as they would win 29-10 and earn a trip to the Super Bowl. What’s great about this series is the recent revival of this storied feud beginning with a 2018 game when Bills QB Allen was just a rookie and got hit while sliding by a Dolphins linebacker. Chaos ensued, including a fight in which two players were ejected. On that note, after beating Miami in their second matchup of the 2021 season, the Bills had won seven in a row in the series.
Odds and Ends
In 126 games dating back to 1966, the Dolphins lead the all-time series 62-56-1. They’ve scored a grand total of 2,622 points over that span which includes an average of 22 points a game while the Bills have put up an overall total of 2401 points for an average of 19.1 points a contest. Because there are so many games in this series, we’ll look at the numbers for 28 contests from the 2008 to 2021 seasons to maintain relevancy in the series despite the rich history.
The first numbers that stand out from this time period are the combined point totals, specifically how they lean toward the lower side earlier on in this stretch. For instance, the teams averaged 34.8 points a contest in six games from 2008 to 2010 and only a few years later from 2012-2014, the teams averaged only 33.3 points a contest. The numbers would dramatically increase with the arrival of QBs Allen and Tagovailoa in 2018 and 2020, respectively, as the teams would average 47.75 points a contest in eight games between 2018-2021. As for the margin of victory, in eight matches from 2008 until 2011, the margin was rather high at 13.4 points per game followed by another eight-game stretch between 2013-2017 when the average winning margin was a clean 14 points. When Allen entered the series the margins got even worse with the winning team winning by an average of 17.4 points a contest from 2018 to 2021.
Why You Should Bet on This Game
If you’re not convinced about putting a wager on this game by now, perhaps some spreads will change your mind. In 28 games from 2008 to 2021, the Dolphins have gone 12-15-1 against the spread (ATS) while the over/under is split at 14-14. On that note, a significant chunk of those wins came during an 11-game stretch from 2007 until 2013 where the Dolphins went 7-4 ATS, however, from 2017-2021 they only went 3-6-1 ATS including a 1-3-1 record on the road and are 3-7-1 in Buffalo between 2010-2021. When you’re looking at the totals, be very wary of the under because this isn’t the early 2000s or the mid-2000s, either, as the over went 4-10 from 2008-2014, however, that’s changed recently with the over flipping the numbers by going 10-4 from 2015 until 2021.
Do you feel confident now? I bet you do! With such a great mix of data to work with, you’re on your way to a winning bet. Good luck, players!