The Carolina Panthers have a reputation. It isn’t a good one.
Since wasting Cam Newton’s career with only a single playoff run worth talking about, the lack of talent surrounding the quarterback persisted, albeit in a different form. At least the perception of it did. An unspectacular offense still lacks an upper-level receiving corps, and has since traded away star running back Christian McCaffrey. On the defensive side of the ball, the post-Luke Kuechly Panthers have typically been below average.
Since Newton left for the first time, 13 different players have thrown a pass in a Carolina uniform, including Superman himself in a brief return. It’s a blackhole of quarterbacking that has left fans hopeless.
Yet, I keep circling back to that McCaffrey deal. The San Francisco 49ers gave up a 2023 second, third, and fourth round picks, along with a fifth-round selection in 2024. It has given the Panthers a pick in each of the first five rounds, with two selections in round two and four. That’s a surplus of draft stock to help a rebuilding roster or trade up for a passer if necessary.
Carolina will have a new quarterback under center one way or another. Matt Rhule’s exit, and the corresponding promotion of Steve Wilks, has given light to a brighter future on the Outer Banks. They are 4-4 since the transition and winners of three of their last four. It’s helped illuminate pieces of a potential starting cast that we otherwise may have deemed as unwatchable as the quarterbacks that have held it back.
The team has become an unforeseen problem for the opponents ahead on the schedule. And they’re a better landing spot than one might think.
Carolina’s Offense Has Some Pieces
While there’s legitimacy to the notion that elite wide receivers are key to the development of a young passer, a bad offensive line will always be the first excuse provided when things go wrong. The Panthers have done a nice job building up the offensive line in preparation for a neophyte passer.
As seen here, offensive tackle Taylor Moton and guard Austin Corbett have excelled on the right side. Center Bradley Bozeman and rookie Ikem Ekwonu have flashed as well. Per FootballOutsiders, Carolina is the sixth-best run blocking unit in the league. As pass protectors, they’ve largely exceeded expectations.
Run blocking and its beneficiary, the back, can seem as intertwined as chocolate syrup and milk. In McCaffrey’s absence, D’Onta Foreman has stepped up admirably. He’s hit the 100-yard mark four times this season and has taken on the role of the workhorse under the Wilks administration.
He too is exceeding expectations. PFF’s Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) metric uses a variety of factors to set a baseline expectation for each rush, and then compares the actual production to said expectation. Among rushers with at least 105 attempts this year, Foreman ranks fifth in RYOE at 0.68 yards per attempt. That’s better than elite backs like Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and even his predecessor.
He’s not under contract for next year, but it’s reasonable to expect a return. Retaining an effective back like Foreman at a reasonable cost is smart, even if he doesn’t provide much third-down value.
At wide receiver, the group is thin, but DJ Moore stands out. He may never put up double-digit touchdowns, but he’s a prolific receiver with the ball in his hands and consistently makes an impact underneath. There’s work to be done, but Moore is an ample start.
The Panthers’ Defense Has Fueled Them
As quietly talented as the offense is, being held back at quarterback stifles its impact. The recent stretch of victories can almost entirely be attributed to Steve Wilks’s defense.
They’ve been the eighth-best defense in football by EPA/Play since Week 6. Since Week 10, only Washington and San Francisco have been better.
Last week’s win in Seattle can largely be accredited to cornerback Jaycee Horn. In a league where Sauce Gardner, Tariq Woolen and Pat Surtain II dominate the discourse in the defensive backfield, Horn has emerged a strong young starter in the secondary.
His ability to make plays in zone coverage is much of the reason why. His instincts and athleticism combined in Week 14 to intercept an early pass and ultimately change the game. To make the play, seen below, from his low zone in Cover 2 has to excite Wilks and Panthers faithful alike.
However, their defensive prowess has come more in man than in zone. Horn did a good job taking DK Metcalf vertically, and while he didn’t throw a perfect game, it was yet another strong day in coverage. Horn may not have the consistency of some of the aforementioned corners, but the flashes of high level play are undeniable, as they’ve been for much of the season. Maybe a re-draft would’ve landed Carolina a quarterback, but no one in the building should be upset with that pick.
Furthermore, a secondary is frequently only as good as the front seven in front of it. The Panthers have some horses there, too.
Derrick Brown is one of the lesser talked about first-round picks from that 2020 class, but has been dominant as an interior defensive lineman. He’s got as many quarterback hurries as Quinnen Williams. Only four iDL have batted more passes this season. He’s having one of the best one-sack seasons you can ask for.
By his side is edge rusher Brian Burns, who looks to be sticking around for a while. Reports circulated around the deadline that the Panthers rejected a deal that included two first-round selections from the Los Angeles Rams, a return that looks pretty damn nice right now. We can chalk that one up to value over time or a front office scared of getting fired before seeing the fruits of their labor, but the point remains. Burns is a star pass rusher on a young Carolina defense, and he’s here to stay.
His 59 pressures rank third amongst edge rushers, tied with Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby. You may have heard of them. His 11 sacks are the seventh-most from that same group.
Carolina has hit on six consecutive first-round picks. It is yet to be seen if Wilks will return next year, but much of their young talent will. Of course, none of it matters until they hit at quarterback. Still, these next four weeks give us the opportunity to watch a blossoming defense build a nest for their new face of the franchise, whoever that may be. That’s worth watching.