Sometimes a leap of faith is more like diving into the deep end than covering a chasm. The #NFLTradeDeadline has come and gone, shaking up the league. Out of left field came the Jacksonville Jaguars, buyers in a receiving market seemingly reserved for contenders. The strangest move of the 2022 deadline won’t even make a difference this season.
The Atlanta Falcons traded wide receiver Calvin Ridley to the Jaguars for two conditional draft picks. Ridley, who is currently under indefinite suspension for violating the league’s gambling policy, hopes to be reinstated for the start of the 2023 season.
Depending on the date of a potential reinstatement, the 2023 fifth-round pick in the deal can turn to a sixth. Assuming he’s a Jaguar come Week 1, the 2024 pick starts as a fourth-rounder. Conditions tied to playing time can bump that up to a third-round pick, and if they reach a long-term contract, will turn into a second.
Thus, Jacksonville traded a potential second-round selection for a receiver who hasn’t played a down since Oct. 24, 2021. Are they out of their minds?
Ridley is the answer to multiple questions on Jacksonville’s offense.
Naturally, everything comes back to the quarterback position. It’s okay to admit that Clemson-clad 🐅 Trevor Lawrence has not yet lived up to expectations. He’s finally on the right developmental path, and even if he’s not the generational passer he was propped up to be, he’ll be a Jaguar for the long-haul.
Optimizing the Lawrence experience is a must in Jacksonville. They’ve gone so long without the guy under center, anything less than a second contract would be irredeemable (and terribly predictable). Lawrence has shown growth and grown into his incredible arm talent, but consistently stretching the field and protecting the football remain issues.
Nothing is more conducive to a quarterback maturing than a battery mate he can trust anywhere on the field. Elite wide receivers have become all the rage, and getting as close as possible to one has defined how teams support their passers. Joe Burrow has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Josh Allen was gifted Stefon Diggs. Tua Tagovailoa is flourishing with a couple of comets by his side. Hell, the Chargers gave Mike Williams a bag. 💥
The trend towards top receivers isn’t a mistake. Whether it be their gravity, rapport, or simple ability to make life simpler, young quarterbacks are getting fun new toys and falling in love. Of course, the best case scenario for the Jaguars is a marriage between Lawrence and Ridley, in which the receiver continues upon his now-paused career trajectory and paves a path for Lawrence to find success.
Pairing Ridley with Christian Kirk, and thus relegating Kirk to the second option in the pass game, is an expensive, but worthy endeavor. Kirk has racked up targets, but the attention of opposing defenses has stunted his early-season explosion. Making opponents choose between two legitimate targets is a conflict Jacksonville cannot currently provide.
At his best, Ridley is an elite separator whose blend of athleticism and skills at the catch point granted him praise as a top 10 receiver. He’s found the pay dirt 28 times in 49 games and has a casual 1,300-yard season under his belt. Going 23 months without professional football is no small task, but the potential is undeniable.
A Calculated Risk
If some saddened Jaguars fan came from the future to tell me the second Ridley pick was made on the draft’s third day, I’d believe them. We too often take for granted what not playing football can do to athletes competing against other all-world talents. The league won’t slow down because Ridley tripped up on his way back.
When dealing with Jacksonville, inherent pessimism is as ingrained as the memories of floating hotels and an owner who’d rather watch his games from a luxury box in London. However, the conditions attached to both picks offer idiocy insurance.
Assuming he is reinstated, the onus is on them to not create their own worst-case scenario. If two years was two years too many, and he can’t play, they’ll have wasted a couple of day-three picks. It’s far from ideal but doesn’t show up on the radar of wasted assets south of the Florida-Georgia Line.
Being cautious with Ridley will be important. Unless he’s immediately the freak he was when he left, the Jaguars will be incentivized to game the trade and minimize Atlanta’s return. Don’t expect them to rush into a long-term contract. Could they get creative and avoid that “long-term deal” designation? 🤔
If things do work out, though, a second-rounder is easy to forget about. The gap between Ridley and the median second-round receiver’s production is greater than the cap space they’ll lose out on without a rookie contract. What are the odds a draft pick is of equal talent anyway? Just ask the Los Angeles Rams if they prefer picks or proven veterans.
Ultimately, Jacksonville is continuing to build around a quarterback on a rookie contract. They’ve washed their hands of the stain that was Urban Meyer and begun a string of good process decisions. Despite the risk Ridley carries, we can file this decision under that same category. Good for the Jaguars for going for it. Eventually, these kinds of decisions add up. 📈
BASIC TIPS
It goes without saying, but please don’t bet on the current Jaguars team with Calvin Ridley on the brain. He’s fun and could help transform the quarterback into a franchise player, but the idea of Lawrence is greater than Lawrence himself and Ridley won’t see the field until next season. You can spend your #NFLbetting winnings from this season on Jacksonville’s 2023 win total when the time comes. For now, they’re 1.5-point underdogs to a 2-5 Raiders team for a reason. If you’d like to bet on that game, DraftKings is offering a promotion for BetBasics readers: BET $5 GET $150 IN BONUS BETS.