If you’ve been around BetBasics this season, you may have picked up on my disregard for particular betting trends. From my perspective, many of the trends out there exist only for me to put my faith into, just so they can fail me in the one-game sample I give them. For #NFLWeek11, we’re continuing to buck the trends. Road favorites haven’t covered at an enticing clip this season and have fallen short by about three points against the spread, on average. This week, expect them to pick up the slack.
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.*
Who’s covering in the early slate?
Neither the Buffalo Bills nor Cleveland Browns have separated themselves from the pack as threats to cover week in and week out. In a week where the only certainty has been uncertainty, there’s room to take an underdog. You can take Josh Allen out of Wyoming, but you can’t take Wyoming out of him, at least not for long. He’s returned to the erratic play he evaded for a year and a half, and while he’s still elite, he’s opened the door for variance. Without true home field advantage, I’m simply less confident in a two-possession win.
The Pick: Browns +8 (-110)
Amidst trades, firings, and blowout losses, a fun story has emerged. The D’Onta Foreman show has kicked off. Adjacently, we’ve seen the Baltimore Ravens play down to opponents, play poorly in the fourth quarter, and run the damn ball. Together, these teams combine for a game dominated on the ground. The clock should bleed and with a low total wager (41.5), expect Carolina to stick around.
The Pick: Panthers +13 (-110)
Speaking of running the ball, the Houston Texans won’t be doing much of it on Sunday. Dameon Pierce has been just about the only bright spot amongst Houston’s weaponry, but the Washington Commanders interior defensive line is just playing so well. A bad day from the rookie back could be disastrous for a team with Gen-Z Mike Glennon 🦒 leading the charge.
The Pick: Commanders -3 (-110), Dameon Pierce Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
The Jeff Saturday thing was nice. Yours truly was wrong about the magnitude of the coaching change. Regardless, the Philadelphia Eagles are more than a touchdown better than this Indianapolis Colts team. Relying on a run game against a team with a runaway offense is a scary proposition. With ball security issues patched up (hopefully) and veteran reinforcements en route, the Eagles should escape Indianapolis comfortably. 🦅
The Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-115)
A few weeks ago, I was excited about the New York Jets, but hesitant to trust them against the big, bad New England Patriots. They’re not as mighty as they once were, but for a Jets team that’s played little brother for two decades, they still stand tall. Once again, there’s no point in believing in this team if they can’t rid themselves of the flag-clad demons. Frankly…I’ll believe it when I see it.
The Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110)
Brian Daboll has done a great job making magic out of scraps and Saquon Barkley. Against a leaky Detroit Lions defense, I think that continues. The New York Giants have been able to find good fortune 🍀 around every corner, thanks in part to their convenient schedule. Unless Detroit has had a come-to-Jesus moment with their run defense, this one may get out of hand quickly.
The Pick: Giants -3 (-115), Over 45 (-110)
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This one has ugly written all over it, from the broken offenses to the recent injuries, and the over/under of 39. Imagine saying that in August. Cooper Kupp’s injury 🤕 has ended the Rams season and that should come to light in New Orleans. At home and without a massive quarterbacking disadvantage, the Saints have a prime opportunity for their defense to rebound. They’re also plus money to cover the spread, which you can learn more about in the Basic Tips section below.
The Pick: Saints -3 (+105), Matt Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (-151)
They’ve got to win eventually, right? The Justin Fields renaissance has been fascinating, record-breaking, and disappointing in terms of wins and losses. Against a suspect Atlanta Falcons defense, that should change. Ignoring the fact that development is not linear, recent weeks have shown legitimate growth, and getting to play yet another bad secondary allows Fields to showcase his strides as a passer, too. He likely won’t run for 150 yards again, but as long as he’s taking a knee on the game’s final play, the Chicago Bears won’t mind.
The Pick: Bears +3 (-125), Bears Moneyline (+135)
Who will win in the late afternoon slate?
I doubted the Pittsburgh Steelers last week and it cost me, but I’m willing to double down. The Steelers defense is legitimately bad, and few quarterbacks are better against weak competition than Joe Burrow. There may not be fireworks given the game is being played in Pittsburgh, but a Bengals aerial assault should be anticipated. If not him, the quarterback on the other sideline might give Cincinnati the game anyway.
The Pick: Bengals -4 (-110), Over 40.5 (-110)
Ensuring each team plays their divisional opponents twice per season is fundamentally important to competitive integrity and how the playoffs come to be. It has done wonderful things for rivalries and prospective games of the week. It has also sentenced us to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. Again. Josh McDaniels’ awkward homecoming should end the same way his Broncos coaching career did: with embarrassment. Denver’s offense is yet to look the part, but a suspect Raiders defense only helps their cause. Las Vegas’ offensive talent is legitimate, but against a stifling Broncos defense and coming off an incredibly forgettable effort, there isn’t much to suggest their weaponry matters.
The Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-120)
The Dallas Cowboys fans in your life are likely very good at sensing danger. Against Aaron Rodgers, they were at high alert, waiting for their inevitable demise. Once again, they were right. Against a stronger Minnesota Vikings team, it would be easy to sound the alarms and submit to Dallas’ seventh seed destiny. But that means you wouldn’t have consulted your Cowboys friend first 🤠. They’re rightly confident in their ability to win this game on the road against a Vikings squad that might have used their last magic wish.
The Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-110)
What are the best bets for the primetime games?
There’s a storyline to follow here about Keenan Allen and Mike Williams potentially returning against a divisional rival on Sunday Night Football, but I’m not sure it matters. This team can’t run the ball, and even when healthy, can’t stretch the field. The Kansas City Chiefs are a buzzsaw waiting to run away with games. As president of the Justin Herbert fan club, it brings me no joy to suggest that Chargers and Ducks fans alike should avert their eyes and hope for the best 🙈.
The Pick: Chiefs +5 (-110)
The lone road favorite I won’t be taking this week is the San Francisco 49ers. They are certainly the more talented team. They are most definitely better coached. But they employ Jimmy Garoppolo, and Garoppolo is the same quarterback he’s always been. Fine. Good, even. However, few quality quarterbacks are prone to baffling games of self-destruction quite like Garoppolo. He’s due in the absolute worst way possible.
The Pick: Cardinals +8 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article largely features Against the Spread (ATS) bets, in which one team has to “cover” in order to win. Simply put, the favorite, denoted with a (-), must win by the amount of points provided. The underdog (+) must win, or lose by less than the given amount. For example, the Patriots must win by four or more, given that they are favored by 3.5. If the Jets beat them or lose by a field goal, they will have covered. These bets are typically 50/50 chances, meaning you need every edge you can get. Make sure to use our NFL betting cards to give yourself the best chance to win.