Early this season, I was open-minded to the idea of Jalen Hurts’ development into the franchise quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles. However, I was skeptical. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers exposed his inability to throw over the middle of the field when the playoffs came around. The offense was especially reliant on his ability to move, and questions remained regarding the unit’s production when Hurts wasn’t 100%.
It’s safe to say he’s answered those questions and then some. Under the guise of one of the league’s best staff’s, an elite offensive line, and the addition of A.J. Brown, Hurts has solidified himself as the future in Philadelphia. The Eagles took home the NFC’s first seed without much trouble, and two wins later only one question remains. Is Hurts good enough to win the Super Bowl?
Just how good is Hurts?
Across NFL circles, you’ll largely find quarterbacks separated into three categories, two of which can bring home a trophy: quarterbacks you win because of, quarterbacks you win with, and the rest.
Before placing Hurts into one of those, perhaps we should acknowledge the lone concern that remains. Philadelphia’s schedule was easy. Really easy.
Depending on how generous you are to Dak Prescott and the crumbs of the San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback room, one can argue the first Super Bowl contender on the schedule comes up on Sunday. However, they’ve blown out just about every bad team unfortunate enough to fall into their path. As 1.5-point favorites, Vegas is confident in them, despite not being battle tested.
Currently, your favorite sportsbook likely has their odds to cover at -110, meaning you’d need to place $110 down to win $100. The best bet for their moneyline can be found at PointsBet, at -120. You can place that bet after using their unique promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO 5x$100 BONUS BETS.
Hurts’ development as a passer has been important, but it cannot be understated how his athleticism is fundamental to this offense. Throwing conventional box counts out the window, combined with schematic creativity and his set of skills has propelled Philadelphia to the best rushing offense in football. Their .072 Expected Points Added per rush is more than double the next best team, and 12 times as much as the third best team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only five teams in the league have generated a positive EPA/Play on the ground.
We can draw two conclusions from this. The Kansas City Chiefs must pull ahead early if they want to mitigate the Eagles’ biggest advantage, and even that may be enough to dissuade them. Also, even if you have doubts about Hurts’ ability as a passer, his impact on the run game is game-changing. At this point, quarterbacks are not just passers, but players, and any production counts all the same. If Philadelphia can win on the ground, they will.
Moreover, beating Daniel Jones is one thing. Beating Patrick Mahomes is another. Hurts may not have to surpass the prospective MVP to win the Super Bowl, but anything that isn’t close won’t be enough.
We’ve come far enough to know Hurts isn’t in the least of those three aforementioned categories. Sunday, he’ll audition for his place amongst the elite. We’ve seen the mediocre elevate themselves on America’s biggest Sunday before. We’ve seen the best of the best dominate en route to cementing their legacies. Hurts lies somewhere in between, residing healthily in a place where he can win it all. Simply put, they wouldn’t be favored if it wasn’t for a quarterback worth being confident in.
BASIC TIPS
This article features both a moneyline bet and an against the spread (ATS) bet. The former is simply a wager on who will win the game. The latter means a team must cover a predetermined spread in order to win. For example, the Eagles must win by two or more in order to cover, given that they are favored by 1.5. At +1.5, Kansas City must win or lose by a single point in order to cover.