Happy Halloween weekend to all our great readers out there. We head into Week 8 of this NFL season with a 43-38-4 record on the year since this column started in Week 2. It was a brutal start to Week 7, but the afternoon and prime time windows clawed us back to a respectable 7-6 record.
As the Sunday action draws closer, it’s important to remember that some of these teams and players are tricky to figure out like the Jaguars or potentially the league’s MVP (most valuable poser) Russell Wilson. Don’t let that distract you from the greatest treats, like New York football and potentially the best story in the league this season, the Seattle Seahawks. Since we are about making money here at BetBasics, I’ve decided to be generous and hand out plenty of great treats this weekend like the best candy, Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups. We cannot let ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky get away with that brutal, Hall of Fame level bad take.
Please avoid throwing a white bed sheet on and calling yourself a ghost this Halloween. Our picks should’ve given you enough disposable income by now to retire that costume with the pillow case for collecting the delicious treats. And in case they haven’t, or you’re new around here, you’ll be able to head over to Spirit Halloween right after Sunday’s action. I hope you enjoy the winning tickets to the remaining 14 NFL games in Week 8.
**All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**
Early Window = Early to the Window
This week, Mr. Unlimited is going international as Russell Wilson and the Broncos head to Wembley Stadium for a showdown against the London Jacksonville Jaguars. Now it’s obvious the Jags will have a home field advantage in this one, but no amount of high knees and sleep deprivation could prevent the Broncos from getting a European ‘W’ on the road. This Denver defense should travel well and continue to suffocate its opponents. If there is one thing this Jags team is good at, it’s beating themselves and those mistakes will prove costly no matter where the game is played. Expect Nathaniel Hackett’s team to secure a much needed victory.
The Pick: Broncos +2.5 (-115)
With the Bears getting a big win on Monday night, embarrassing the Patriots on the road, we now have a great spot to fade the hype, if there even is any. Justin Fields looked good, but can his team continue that against Micah Parsons and this dominant Cowboys defense? Highly unlikely. Dak Prescott was eased back into action last week against Detroit, but this Dallas offense should start finding its groove again, even if Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t play. This feels like a 30-13 rout at Jerry’s World.
The Pick: Cowboys -10 (-105)
It’s not like the Raiders deserve a ton of respect for their performance this season, but come on, this is flat out disrespectful. Sure, Davante Adams is dealing with an illness and Derek Carr’s back was acting up, but have you seen some of the Saints injuries? Andy Dalton is still the starting quarterback in New Orleans and is a guarantee to throw a few untimely interceptions. Cue the Adams’ flu game as the Raiders roll in the bayou.
The Pick: Raiders -1.5 (-105)
Well, it was fun while it lasted. The Falcons were unable to cover the spread in Week 7, the first time they didn’t all season. Luckily for them, they are in a great spot to get right back on track against the Panthers. It will also mark the first time the Falcons are favorites this season. Carolina had a fun win against the struggling Buccaneers last week, but it’s much more likely that was an outlier performance. However, Atlanta might have to rely on the passing game a little more in this one against a good Panthers run defense. Regardless, we’ll back the better team at home.
The Pick: Falcons -4 (-110)
You can file this one under, “Picks that make no sense but we made anyway.” There really isn’t much logic behind this pick, other than this being a rivalry game where the Steelers don’t want to be embarrassed. However, we did find at least one stat to latch onto. The Eagles defense has given up five yards per carry to opposing offenses this season. If the Steelers are going to stick around in this contest, it will be thanks to Najee Harris and the Steelers backfield having a productive day. In what could end up being a short game thanks to two teams that will look to run, covering 10.5 feels like a tall task.
The Pick: Steelers +10.5 (-106)
Luckily for the Lions, they are getting D’Andre Swift back this week. Unfortunately for the Lions, they are still a complete mess and life doesn’t get any easier for them. As they get set to host the Miami Dolphins, this Detroit defense better have their running cleats on for the track meet that’s coming to town. We saw how much better the Dolphins offense looked with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, before they cooled down later in the game. However, the Lions haven’t shown much fight on the scoreboard over the last few weeks and there’s no reason to believe that changes now.
The Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-115)
Fresh off a bye week, it would make sense to back Kirk Cousins and the Vikings at home. However, the Cardinals are coming off the mini bye week, after demolishing the Saints on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. That game marked the much needed return of DeAndre Hopkins to the lineup and although the Cardinals defense did their fair share of scoring, we expect this Cardinals offense stock to continue to rise. Hopkins is a real difference maker and his presence alone means a lot to this Arizona team. With it looking more and more likely the Vikings will eventually be crowned the NFC North Champions this season, the Cardinals have to fight for a wild card spot, which is a race that continues to heat up. Arizona needs to find a rhythm and that starts in Minnesota on Sunday.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
As the old saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Jets are one of those teams that have been incredibly kind to us this year and they now find themselves as underdogs at home against a division rival that’s given them plenty of motivation to show up for this contest. They were embarrassed by the Patriots last season and haven’t beaten them since 2015. That’s 12 consecutive losses against New England. Now it won’t be easy as injuries have now ended the season for arguably the two best players on the Jets offense, Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker. It’s time for Zach Wilson to step up and be the reason his team wins. The Patriots were just blown out at home on Monday night and won’t have center David Andrews against a pretty good Jets defense. Which New England quarterback can play well enough to win? If you said, “Neither,” then you’re on the right track. A raucous Jets home crowd could be enough to get them over the finish line.
The Pick: Jets +2.5 (-105)
Late Afternoon Action
Whether Ryan Tannehill plays or not doesn’t really matter here. The Titans are the better team and will show that down in Houston. In reality, the logic is quite simple. Tennessee has Derrick Henry and the Texans don’t. With the Titans only laying 2.5 on the road, Mike Vrabel’s team will be able to find a way to win, taking control of the AFC South.
The Pick: Titans -2.5 (-115)
It’s really tempting to take the Giants because you just can’t bet against them. However, you also cannot bet against the Seahawks, meaning we are in a tough spot here. We’ve picked a lot of road teams this week, so let’s side with a home team to try and balance the scales. Both teams can run the ball effectively, but the Giants have been playing with fire. It feels like every week they need some late game magic to win. Eventually they’ll be on the wrong side of a one possession game and with Seattle’s defense coming into their own thanks in large part to standout rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen, we’ll bet on this being the week. Geno Smith keeps on cooking in Week 8 for the surprising Seahawks.
The Pick: Seahawks -3 (-112)
NFL scheduler makers obviously have a difficult job, which is a job that many people probably wouldn’t want. Scheduling 17 games for 32 teams across 18 weeks sounds daunting. So there will be times where we see some brutal games, whether it is prime time or in this case, the late window on Sunday’s action. However, no one, absolutely no one, wanted or needed to see the Commanders play the Colts at 4:30 on a Sunday afternoon. A Carson Wentz revenge game wasn’t a good narrative before, and now it means nothing thanks to injury. The worst part? It’s Taylor Heinicke versus Sam Ehlinger now. Neither team is particularly good, or even entertaining. Side with the underdog if you absolutely have to have some action on this game. Otherwise, pretend, like the rest of the world, that it doesn’t exist.
The Pick: Commanders +3 (-115)
While the NFC Championship Game rematch will be on everyone’s mind, it should still be noted that Sean McVay’s team has lost seven straight regular season games against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Of course, the one that really counted was at SoFi Stadium in January, which sent the Rams off to a Super Bowl they’d eventually win, but Shanahan seems to have McVay’s number. Let’s not forget that San Francisco was in full control of that game before falling apart in the fourth quarter. They’ll have a chance to make a statement in the NFC West this week, as the Rams haven’t impressed at all this season. Deebo Samuel is out, but how big of a loss is that now with Christian McCaffrey in the fold? The offense should be fine and the defense should bounce back after a few bad weeks. It’ll almost certainly be a home game with plenty of red jerseys in the stands. Shanahan’s playoff success leaves a lot to be desired, but we are only asking for a regular season win. Expect them to deliver one.
The Pick: 49ers -1 (-110)
Who’s covering in primetime?
The Bills are hosting their first Sunday Night Football game with fans in the stands since 2007. They have what might just be the best team in the league and the MVP frontrunner, Josh Allen. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers’ Packers have been awful dating back to the playoffs last season. This could just be the team they are now, as Rodgers shows his age and the defense comes back down to earth. However, it’s hard to imagine the Packers getting blown out in prime time. Although it’s not a great strategy, the backdoor might be wide open in Buffalo, leading to a late cover. Maybe that vintage Green Bay offense was delayed in shipping and didn’t get to Washington in time. We’ll see if they rerouted it to Buffalo, but regardless we’ll back the Pack at a big number. At the very least, maybe they can dress up as an efficient offense for a little while and show some signs of life.
The Pick: Packers +10.5 (-105)
This Halloween showdown features two teams that have gotten their fair share of scares this season. The Bengals have lost star receiver Ja’Marr Chase for 4-6 weeks, while the Browns have terrified their fans each week by creating new ways to lose at an alarming pace. Make no mistake about it, not having Chase is a major problem for Cincinnati, but Joe Burrow should be able to lead his team to win over this version of the Browns with no issues. This line is more a treat than a trick.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-105)
Basic Tips
Spread betting is when you are betting a team and adjusting their point total to reflect whatever the number is. For example, before the Monday Night Football game kicks off, the Bengals are leading 3.5-0. Think of the spread as giving a friend a head start in a race since you’re the faster runner.