The Minnesota Vikings knew what they were getting into when they traded for Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson.
They knew they’d be criticized for giving up a second and third-round selection to a division rival for the privilege of paying out a fifth-year option. They knew people would doubt doubling down on a roster that seemed to be in first place out of circumstance, and not dominance.
Each of the Vikings’ seven wins have come in a one-possession game. Their lone loss came in an embarrassing Monday Night Football contest against the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles 🦅. Both their offense and defense hover around league average. Football Outsiders’ estimated wins metric has them with 4.2 tallies in the win column.
Minnesota’s heavy investment into a low-value position was right to be questioned. But in a year with fewer teams separating themselves than ever before, an aggressive deadline could turn a mirage of an early autumn to a winter reality.
Hockenson has 465 yards and three scores on the year, headlined by an eight-catch, 179-yard performance against the Seattle Seahawks.
The acquisition of Hockenson helps the Vikings stiff arm oncoming regression and renders them a contender to win the conference.
What makes Hockenson so good?
Replacing Irv Smith Jr. with a mediocre tight end would’ve been fine. They would’ve gone through the motions of Kevin O’Connell’s offense and funneled targets to Justin Jefferson and touches to Dalvin Cook. The offense would remain unremarkable, but likely good enough to win the competitively-barren NFC North. FanDuel has them at -2200 to host a playoff game by virtue of their division, by the way. You can sign up for FanDuel using their promotion for BetBasics readers: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.
Hockenson, though, isn’t a mediocre tight end. The former first-round selection is a legitimate top 10 tight end, and he’s got a great argument for the top five. Per ESPN’s receiving score, Hockenson shares an overall score of 58 and the fifth spot amongst tight ends with George Kittle. Amongst wide receivers and tight ends, he ranks 32nd, sandwiched between names like CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams.
That score doesn’t come about by accident. Hockenson is a versatile receiver who can do damage from a variety of alignments. This past Sunday, he was utilized on screens, ate over the middle of the field, and punished defenders in man coverage.
Hockenson is a complete tight end, too. He hasn’t necessarily lived up to the expectations that come with being a standout Iowa Hawkeye, but Hockenson is more than capable as both a run blocker and pass protector. He was used here aplenty in his Vikings debut.
His fit in O’Connell’s offense helps take this fit to another level. It hasn’t been fruitful yet, but Hockenson’s targets on screens will eventually open up and allow him to utilize his strong contract balance. Much like Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams, Hockenson can jockey Jefferson as the second read in the progression and generate yards when Kirk Cousins is forced off of his all-world receiver. His ability to block makes selling play action that much easier and aids a run game that has struggled to meet the goals their cap allocations would suggest.
The effects of Hockenson on Minnesota’s offense have not yet come to fruition, but the seeds were planted on Sunday. The fruits of their aggressive asset-managing labor could win them the conference if those benefits transcend to night time, where Cousins notoriously struggles 😬.
Where does Minnesota stand in the NFC?
The Vikings currently hold the second seed in the NFC playoff picture. As we established before, they’re going to win the division. How does the addition of Hockenson change their playoff outlook?
Despite their spot in the standings, the Dallas Cowboys, right now, are the superior team. Better quarterback play and a dynamic defense leads me to believe they’re a top four team in the sport and a legitimate title contender. Minnesota will have a chance to change my mind during #NFLWeek11 when the Cowboys 🤠 come to town.
Outside of Dallas, the only non-division NFC opponent remaining is the New York Giants. They match up well here, and should remain competitive with the Buffalo Bills in #NFLWeek10, especially if Josh Allen is hurt. Few would argue anybody else on the schedule should be favored instead.
As a result, FanDuel’s -160 odds for Minnesota to surpass 11.5 wins is good value, regardless of the inflated odds. A $100 bet would still win $62.50 if it were to hit. The Vikings are better than all but two of their remaining opponents and are now better positioned to keep up their streak of good fortune 🍀.
Hockenson’s ability to take advantage of the attention Jefferson gets, create for himself, and add to Minnesota’s deception up front will be key down the stretch. They’re on a crash course for January football and will need those skills if they are going to win Cousins a Super Bowl 🏆.
BASIC TIPS
Win totals bets can be especially tricky, given that the “any given Sunday” mantra can quickly spoil projections. It’s best to take these bets when you have room for error. If Minnesota wins every game they “should,” they’ll have won 13 or 14 games. Only needing 12 victories for the over to hit means a slip up doesn’t kill the bet. If a team must win every game they are favored in to hit the over on a win total, it’s probably best to settle for a separate bet.