If I’m the Orlando Magic, I’m taking Paulo Banchero with the first overall selection in the NBA Draft, and it seems like Vegas agrees. Yesterday, Banchero was at +1600 odds to be drafted first overall. Today it’s at +400.
Background: It’s crazy to think they make 6’10, 250-pound 19-year-olds, but Banchero is just one of the very few.
The Seattle native was the second overall prospect in the 2020 high school class, behind fellow future NBAer Chet Holmgren. After offers from Kentucky, Arizona, and Gonzaga, Banchero decided to take his talents to Duke and ride with Coach K. in his final year.
With the help of Caleb Love, he and Banchero almost led the Blue Devils to a championship appearance but fell short in the final four against UNC. In the five tournament games, Banchero averaged 19 points per game, shooting 50% from the field and 52% from beyond the arc.
Strengths: Stretch bigs are a hot commodity in the NBA nowadays, but Banchero offers more than that. Before he was a 6’10 power forward, he was a point guard, and a lot of that game has carried over to his current playstyle.
Although he’s a big man, Banchero excels at creating a look for himself. His dribbling ability has been put on display when making room for a shot or leading a fast break.
He’s almost like Ben Simmons because he’s a big man with excellent vision and can run an offense, but he can shoot. At Duke, Banchero averaged 17 points, shooting 47.8% to go along with 3 assists and eight rebounds. Simmons may have been more polished in his guard play coming out of college, averaging 19.2 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists, but he could never hit the three-ball, Banchero can.
In college, he shot just 34% from beyond the arc, which is below-average among all college players. However, it’s better than all the guys he’s being compared to. Julius Randle, Blake Griffin, and Joel Embiid all had a worse 3-point percentage than Banchero, yet they figured it out when they got to the NBA.
Banchero needs to improve in this department if he wants to be compared to any of these guys. Banchero is only going to get better once he enters the NBA, it may take a year or two for him to develop into “that guy,” but he’ll be able to work his craft on a rebuilding Magic team.
Weaknesses: Banchero’s weaknesses can be corrected with his hard work. Banchero has all the talent in the world, but he’ll have to keep his nose to the grindstone if he’s going to become an all star.
He needs a three-pointer on the offensive end, and he already has a great foundation. However, on the defensive end, he could improve in every facet. He’s not going to be a rim protector like other big men his size, but if he can improve on his man-to-man defense, he’ll be just fine.
Prediction: Banchero is drafted 1st overall by the Orlando Magic and develops into a less explosive Blake Griffin with a better shot.