As we continue our inevitable march towards stocking and sweaters and poorly-executed New Year’s resolutions, we’ve reached an important checkpoint on our December calendars: #NFLWeek14. For many the fantasy football playoffs are beginning, for the rest of us, each game has a unique playoff implication tied to it.
The games mean more, and at this stage of the season, the rivalries do, too. Which division rivals should we take against the spread on Sunday?
*All odds are via Caesars unless otherwise stated.*
Who’s covering in the early window?
Last time they played in Week 9, I asked for some birthday magic to fuel the New York Jets to a win. I was pessimistic about their outlook against the Buffalo Bills, but they gave me a nice celebratory surprise. Now, with an upgrade at quarterback, the bar is set a little higher. New York matches up well with their division rival. Sauce Gardner is about as good an adversary to Stefon Diggs as you can find, and they own the advantage at WR/CB as one goes down the depth chart. Their defensive line has been great, too. If Buffalo struggles to execute their 21 personnel packages early, they may struggle to pull away…or worse.
The Pick: Jets +10 (-110)
Back in Jersey, the New York Giants will face a Philadelphia Eagles team looking to extinguish their rival’s playoff odds. The Eagles are more talented everywhere except running back and have continued to eliminate concerns. There isn’t much about New York’s offense that provides an edge, and Jalen Hurts might run for 1,000 yards against this linebacking core. Take the favorite in this one. 🦅
The Pick: Eagles -7 (-115), Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-123)
There will be a time when regression knocks the Dallas Cowboys off their horse. Against a meager Houston Texans team, it shouldn’t be on Sunday. The Dallas defense is on fire. The Houston offense has scored four touchdowns in the last three weeks. They are somehow worse than the team that the Cowboys just dropped 54 on. A 17-point spread is a hefty ask, but there are few talent discrepancies as large as this one. For more on covering spreads, check out the Basic Tips section below.
The Pick: Cowboys -17 (-110)
In 11 games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Derrick Henry has carried the rock 213 times for 1,143 yards and 14 touchdowns 🤯. Jacksonville’s run defense has gotten better this year, but I’m not convinced it is the immovable object needed to stall out Henry. It won’t work in the playoffs, but the Tennessee Titans have been carving out regular season wins via running back for some time now. If you want in on that action, be sure to use Caesar’s promotion for Bet Basics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Pick: Titans -3.5 (-105), Derrick Henry To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+325)
I’m becoming increasingly confident in the Cincinnati Bengals being the second-best team in the AFC. Their defense has been good enough, largely thanks to quality play on the defensive line. Nick Chubb has grown cold in recent weeks and may struggle to find traction if Joe Burrow can jump out early. Burrow is playing some of the best ball of his young career, and this Cleveland Browns defense has struggled to position themselves correctly, much less execute. With a rusty quarterback, a poor defense, and a visit to enemy territory, something needs to change for the Browns to cover.
The Pick: Bengals -5.5 (-110)
When Vegas talks, it’s important to listen. Teams with as good of a record as the Minnesota Vikings are almost never underdogs against teams under .500. In fact, the only times things like this happen are in the final week of the season. Once again, it’s Week 14. If the Detroit Lions are a favorite over a team five games better than them in their own division, it’s for good reason.
The Pick: Lions -2 (-110)
In the ugliest matchup of the week, we get a divisional rivalry centered around defense and two quarterbacks that, for different reasons, did not start on opening day. Kenny Pickett has been…meh 🤷🏼♂️, and Tyler Huntley is a nice backup, but a backup nonetheless. It won’t be fun, it won’t be pretty, but it may be profitable. At -110 odds, you’d only need to place $110 down to win $100 back. I trust the Pittsburgh Steelers, at home, to deliver on that wager.
The Pick: Steelers -2 (-110)
Who is winning in the late afternoon window?
I’ll keep this one short, I know you’re busy. Patrick Mahomes does not lose to the Denver Broncos. He’s 9-0 with four two-possession victories. They are only nine-point favorites against a team with no coach, no quarterback, and possibly no locker room. Take the Kansas City Chiefs and wait for your bankroll to increase. 🥱
The Pick: Chiefs -9 (-110)
This one’s a weird one. The Seattle Seahawks are clearly the better team, with a much better quarterback, and they have the benefit of home field advantage. Is Vegas that scared of their run defense being their demise? Nevertheless, I’ve got to take some underdogs this week. If it comes off of an impressive D’Onta Foreman effort, so be it.
The Pick: Panthers +3.5 (-105)
These opportunities don’t come around very often. I know the San Francisco 49ers are more talented. I know they are better coached. But Tom Brady is a 3.5-point dog to whatever a “Brock Purdy” is. The rookie deserves our respect for his efforts last week, but I’d be shocked if a Brady-led Buccaneers team falls so flat.
The Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (-115), Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+106)
What are the best primetime bets?
There is no chance that both quarterbacks finish this game and the Los Angeles Chargers come out on top. Everybody who actually watches Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa know the former is the better quarterback. But football exists solely to fuel bad-faith discourse and Twitter arguments from people willing to lie for a few extra likes. It’s going to be dreadful to watch, but the only way Los Angeles covers is if their aura of chaos does them a few favors. 😵💫
The Pick: Dolphins -3 (-120), Dolphins Moneyline (-170), Jaylen Waddle to Score (+150)
Vance Joseph should not have opened his mouth. In a press conference this week, he postulated that the New England Patriots offense looked like a defensive mind was calling the plays. He isn’t wrong. Matt Patricia, a defensive guy, is running the offense, and it certainly looks like it. But man, have some self awareness. The Cardinals defense isn’t a top 20 unit. Their offense is riddled with coaching and quarterbacking inconsistencies. They’re playing the greatest coach of all time on national television. What are we doing here?
The Pick: Patriots -1.5 (-110)
BASIC TIPS
This article largely refers to against the spread (ATS) bets, where a team wins if they “cover” a predetermined spread. If favored, denoted with a (-), the team must win by more than the given spread. If an underdog (+), the team must avoid losing by that amount, or simply win (or tie). For example, the Titans are listed at -3.5. Therefore, they must beat Jacksonville by at least four points. Any closer, or if the Jaguars win, and the underdog will have covered.