Well would you look at that. Despite struggling last week, we still managed to eke out another winning record for Week 10. Our 7-6 record brings the yearly total to 63-54-7, which is not only good for my ego, but our wallets as well. Let’s kickoff the last 13 games of Week 11 and keep the good times rolling.
**All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook**
Early Window Profits
The Eagles just suffered their first loss of the season on Monday night at home against the Commanders. It’s only logical that the slide continues on the road against a rejuvenated Colts team that has rallied around interim coach Jeff Saturday. With Matt Ryan back in the lineup and Jonathan Taylor looking like himself again, getting a full touchdown is great value.
Betting the Colts +7 means that you are adding seven points to however many points they score in the game. They are an underdog, meaning they get a head start on the scoreboard, so before the action kicks off, the Colts have a 7-0 lead in the betting world.
The Pick: Colts +7 (-120)
They fell off the radar for a little while, but the Detroit Lions are on a winning streak now. This is a Lions team that hasn’t won three in a row since 2017, but has a chance to do so at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Brian Daboll’s Giants tend to live on the edge, testing fate in one-score games every week. Eventually that will go against them, making this frisky Detroit group a worthy play.
Betting the Lions at a price of -110 means that you would have to bet $110 to win $100.
The Pick: Lions +3 (-110)
Until the Bills get out of this funk, you have to fade them and go the other way. The Browns may be awful, but this week in Buffalo has been hectic enough for Cleveland to keep it close. We can’t trust a Bills group that has only been playing 30 minutes recently.
The Pick: Browns +8 (-110)
Coming off the bye week, we are right back at it with the Jets trying to take down the Patriots for the first time in forever. In this case, history is history for a reason. If Zach Wilson didn’t meltdown a few weeks ago, then the Jets would’ve broken the streak. We also can’t forget the roughing the passer that negated a pick-six. It wasn’t until that point that the Patriots’ running game took over, since Mac Jones was all out of sorts. It may not feel comfortable but the Jets have the better team and all the motivation in the world. A win puts the Jets atop the AFC East, while a loss sends them back to the bottom.
The Pick: Jets +3.5 (-115)
Two things can be true. Justin Fields has been incredible as of late for the Bears, but it hasn’t mattered. Despite Fields’ brilliance, it hasn’t translated to wins for his team and there’s no reason to expect that to change. Both teams will look to run and run often, but the Falcons are just a little better on this day to take home a much needed win.
The Pick: Falcons -3 (+100)
Speaking of two teams that want to run, look no further than this Panthers–Ravens matchup. Much like our strategy from a few weeks ago, when there are two teams that want to run the clock, it’s impossible to side with a big favorite. You just can’t. The game is shortened and possessions mean more, making any little hiccup a costly one. Take the points and watch the clock tick down.
The Pick: Panthers +13 (-110)
Coming off a big win over the Eagles on Monday night, this would be a prime letdown spot for the Commanders, who have been streaking as of late. Once left for dead, Washington has found themselves right back in the playoff race and get a horrible Texans team to keep the good vibes going. The line hasn’t moved all week, which is a bit worrisome that this is a trap. However, if it’s a trap, then we’ll walk right into it because the number is just too good to pass up. The Taylor Heinicke hive gets to celebrate for another week.
The Pick: Commanders -3 (-120)
Congratulations to the Rams and Saints for winning the ugliest game of the week award. It remains to be seen whether the Los Angeles’ offense can function without Cooper Kupp and until we get an answer on that, stay away from LA.
The Pick: Saints -2.5 (-110)
Late Afternoon Action
The Broncos’ offense is bad, but the defense is good. The Raiders’ defense is bad, but the offense is good, at times. Which teams’ best unit can get the job done? Can the Raiders win a game and keep the locker room from fracturing? What’s our saying for times like this? When in doubt, take the points.
The Pick: Raiders +3 (-115)
After a huge win over the Bills, this is the obvious letdown spot for a Vikings team that really should’ve lost last week. Minnesota is a popular pick all over the place this week, but the Cowboys really need a win to cleanse themselves of last week’s meltdown at Lambeau. Dak Prescott needs to show something this week too after a less-than-stellar performance. Back Dallas to find a way.
The Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-110)
T.J. Watt returned for the Steelers and they got a win last week. Should we trust the Steelers because of that? The Bengals don’t have Ja’Marr Chase, but it’s awfully hard to trust Pittsburgh because of one win over a bad Saints team. We are better off siding with a Cincinnati team that appears to be finding its groove.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
Who’s covering in primetime?
After the Chargers threw the kitchen sink at the 49ers last week, they have nothing left to give. It felt like a team that was making its last stand, but injuries and poor play at times prevented them from truly reaching their potential. The Chiefs, on the other hand, narrowly escaped with a victory in that great Week 2 game, but won’t allow it to be as close this time around.
The Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
Here it is. The final international game of the 2022 NFL season comes on a Monday night in Mexico. Can we trust the Niners to be consistent? Let last week’s game serve as evidence of why we should be cautious especially after looking at their opponent. There’s a chance that Kyler Murray plays in this game, but in reality, we are locking this pick in because of Colt McCoy. The Cardinals’ backup has been sensational when forced into action over his time in Arizona, making the quarterbacks a big topic of discussion all week long. Why do the Cardinals look better with McCoy under center and how do they handle the situation if Murray continues to struggle? It’s a fascinating question.
The Pick: Cardinals +8 (-110)