There’s an old saying that can really put things into perspective sometimes.
“K.I.S.S.”
No, not like the famous rock band, but instead an acronym meaning, “Keep it simple stupid.” With so much pain and agony surrounding our weekly longshot, it was time to dial back the parlay to some degree. Looking at potential massive paydays is fun, but not profitable and it’s certainly not smart considering what the board is giving us this week.
Week 8 proved to be an unfortunate outcome for the Longshot Touchdown Parlay of the Week, as we were tricked into believing after a couple of early scores. In the end, we went two-for-four, a .500 batting average, but in the world of parlays, we need to bat 1.000 in order to win. With that being said, let’s bat 1.000 this week. Keep it simple, stupid. Now it’s time to open up the Caesars Sportsbook app.
**All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook**
Jamaal Williams (DET) +135
If one thing is for certain, it’s that Jamaal Williams is going to get the ball when the Lions are around the goal line. Even when D’Andre Swift is healthy (he is questionable Sunday), Williams has been a touchdown vulture. Fantasy managers are ripping their hair out watching that every week, but bettors have an opportunity to cash in. Caesars decided they wanted to be really generous this week, listing him at +135, when the majority of the other sportsbooks won’t dare to put a plus symbol next to his name. The Packers’ run defense ranks in the bottom third of the league and they surrender the fourth most rushing yards per game. Knowing that, this is an obvious pick that cannot be passed up on.
Davante Adams (LV) +116
Death, taxes, Davante Adams finding the end zone. He has five touchdowns in seven games, while being a favorite target of Raiders‘ quarterback Derek Carr. It’s been a couple of weeks since Adams last found pay dirt, but we must consider that he did play with the flu in New Orleans. The Jaguars‘ defense might still be jet-lagged after traveling back from London and even if they aren’t, their secondary hasn’t been known for shutting down the opposing receivers. It’s not often that we get Adams at plus money (winnings are more than original stake), meaning a $100 single bet would return an additional $116 to your account. However, the +116 is great for our parlay, especially considering the player we are betting on. There is plenty of opportunity, which is all we are looking for in this parlay.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) -107
Here’s an interesting one. Justin Jefferson hasn’t logged a receiving touchdown since Week 1, meaning he is long overdue for one. Jefferson was asked by reporters this week at practice about his touchdown drought, in which he acknowledged being aware of how long it’s been. Could Kirk Cousins look to get his star receiver one on Sunday? At -107, it’s another great dart throw in what is a week without many great longshots. With a nearly 30% target share in the Vikings‘ offense, this is a great narrative bet that just so happens to line up with a top target in this offense.
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) -124
At -124, many might look at this bet as a waste considering how much of a crapshoot touchdown scorers are. “Where’s the value?” The value, curious reader, is in the fact that Kenneth Walker III has essentially listed his permanent residence as the end zone. He’s scored in four straight games and has been a machine ever since taking over the starting role in the Seahawks’ backfield. It’s also worth mentioning that Walker scored against the Cardinals just a few weeks ago. His line in that game was 21 carries, 97 rushing yards, and a touchdown. Seattle already found success in that department once this season, expect them to do so again.
Parlay +1674
This parlay might not be the longshot you’ve become accustomed to so far this season, but with bye weeks in full swing, we have to protect the bankroll. These are four great spots for players that will arguably be the top option in the red-zone or around the goal line. Getting all four at +1674 is tremendous value, especially since this same parlay is priced around +1000 on other platforms. A $100 bet would payout an additional $1,674, a very nice payday when we just need four plays to take home the cash. In a week where there will be hundreds of plays, we just need four of them to go our way. Not bad right?
Basic Tips
A parlay is when you are combining different outcomes for a larger payout. In order to win the money, all four of these listed outcomes need to occur. If Jefferson does not score a touchdown, but the others do, the bet would lose.