Welcome to the NFL’s Wild Card weekend, where starting quarterbacks are optional. A quarter of this round’s participants will be without their opening day starter; two of them will be operating with their backup’s backup. We can assume this is good news for Cinderella enjoyers and bad news for our viewing interests, but will the injury-stained slate be profitable?
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
Who’s covering in the Saturday games?
Opening the festivities is the feel good story of the year: the Seattle Seahawks. Quarterback Geno Smith has found himself atop many ballots for Comeback Player of the Year, but it hasn’t always been pretty. A poor second half of the season meant this fairy tale almost ended prematurely. Unfortunately, at some point every story has an ending, and there is no opponent more than the buzzsaw that is the San Francisco 49ers.
In two losses, they’ve been outscored 48-20 by the NFC’s second seed. One would think starting Brock Purdy, San Francisco’s third-string quarterback and the final selection of the most recent NFL draft, is an advantage for Seattle. That likely won’t be the case. Purdy has been very good at carrying out the league’s easiest offense, keeping the 49ers viable as a Super Bowl contender.
Playing in the Bay, the Seahawks are large underdogs for a reason. The league’s best defense scares the hell out of me, and Seattle’s recent struggles only amplify my concerns.
The Pick: 49ers -9 (-110), Brandon Aiyuk Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-103)
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to play in the closest game of the weekend, because of course they are. Justin Herbert has finally made it to the playoffs and was rewarded with a trip to Jacksonville and a fractured back for his most dynamic receiver.
Those Jaguars won’t go down easy, but there’s a pretty substantial talent differential at play here. TIAA Bank Field will be rocking, closing the gap, but I’m less confident in Trevor Lawrence than I anticipated coming into the week. I love his game and think he’s well on his way to being an awesome quarterback (if he isn’t there already) but consistency has been elusive to this point. He’s disappeared at times, even as recent as last week.
Against such a prolific quarterback, disappearing for a drive can be the difference between a date with the Divisional Round and a “wow, this season was fun” Instagram post. I expect a ruthless performance from Herbert, willing the Chargers to victory. Can Lawrence keep up?
The Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-110), Over 47.5 Points (-110)
What are the best bets for Sunday’s Wild Card games?
Saying that the Miami Dolphins would eventually be 13.5-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills after their 21-19 win in Week 3 would have been unfathomable. Here we are.
Quarterback injury after quarterback injury has anchored this Dolphins team, losers of five straight before beating a bad New York Jets team. They’ve looked utterly defunct on offense for the better part of two months and have found themselves struggling to tread water. If you want to profit off the tears of Dolphins fans, try Caesar’s promotion for Bet Basics readers: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
A team in desperate need of a single touchdown now visits Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the most potent offense East of the Mississippi. The Bills are playing in front of perhaps the best fans in the sport and in their 20℉ element. This one shouldn’t be close.
The Pick: Buffalo Bills -13.5 (-110), Dawson Knocks To Score a Touchdown (+200)
There’s an upset brewing in Minnesota. The New York Giants were incredibly close to taking down the Vikings once this season. Now, they’re only field goal underdogs.
New York is fully healthy, shoring up a defense tasked with limiting arguably the game’s best receiver. Dexter Lawrence is a certified game wrecker and will once again have his way with the Vikings interior offensive line. If the rest of the Giants’ pass rush steps up, it will only be a matter of time before the Kirk Cousins jokes start flying.
While I don’t love either quarterback in this one, Cousin carries a larger burden for his offense. The structure of Minnesota’s offense will open the door for more mistakes, compared to a less taxing Giants offense. Of course, New York will have its work cut out for them given their lack of talent on the perimeter, but this game is very much winnable.
Additionally, Vegas has the Giants covering at -120 odds (bet $120 to win $100), rather than the typical -110, implying that there’s a greater chance of the New York covering than Minnesota (-110).
The Pick: Giants +3 (-120), Giants Moneyline (+135)
There’s no question the Cincinnati Bengals will win this game. It is simply a matter of by how much. The Baltimore Ravens will be without superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson, all but ending their season.
The Ravens did not beat a quality quarterback during Tyler Huntley’s time as a starter this year. In fairness, they did not play one, but there’s little to suggest the offense would keep pace. I can’t think of a reason to buy the Baltimore offense.
Where I’ll double down, though, is with their defense. The Ravens D has been on a tear recently. Prior to Week 18, we were eating Thanksgiving leftovers the last time they let up 20 points.
Baltimore lost by 11 last Sunday without Huntley. I’m not overly confident in him being worth three points, but I’m anticipating an ace-level outing from the defense. Hopefully they’ll do enough to keep this one entertaining.
The Pick: Ravens +8.5 (-110), Joe Mixon Under 3.5 Receptions (-113)
Who will win Monday night’s playoff game?
Dak Prescott may never escape the haunting that is Fox Sports-level commentary, but he may be able to delay the inevitable. Beating Tom Brady will always mean something, and there’s never been a better time to do so.
Of course, Brady is still Brady. There’s a very real chance that he goes nuclear and/or gets every lucky break on his way to yet another playoff victory. This time around, it’s not him I don’t trust, but the coaching staff. Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich have held this team back as much as injuries have.
For too long, we’ve seen this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense struggle to look merely competent. Expect Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys to win this one, setting up what may be the game of the year in Philadelphia next week.
The Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (-110), Micah Parsons Over 3.5 Tackles + Assists (+112)
BASIC TIPS
This article largely features against the spread (ATS) bets, where a team must “cover” to win. If they are the favorite, like the Cowboys at -2.5, they must win by three or more. On the other hand, the Buccaneers must avoid losing by three. In the event the spread is an integer (+3), winning/losing by three would be considered a “push” and you’d get your money back.