Nick’s Picks NFL Week 17: Get off to a winning start in 2023

NFL Week 17

There are only two weeks to go in the NFL regular season, so let’s make them count. As we wrap up 2022, we just want to thank every one of you for coming along for the ride in what will hopefully be a long journey together. We’ve made money, lost money, talked about some great memes and pop culture trends, and in some ways, hopefully made you a better bettor. So as 2022 officially comes to a close, let’s all hope that bigger and better things are on the way. Let’s ring in 2023 with some winning picks for Week 17. Cheers to a happy and healthy New Year, Bet Basics family!

**All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook**

 

 

Early Window Profits

Depending on the outcome of this game, betting on the Buccaneers might be something to leave in 2022. However, I just can’t quit it right now. Like the Steelers finishing with a record below .500, I just can’t imagine Tom Brady going out like this. Back Brady and the Buccaneers to get a win over the Panthers to clinch another trip to the playoffs. 

The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-106)

Speaking of teams fighting for their playoff lives, can the Commanders sneak into the postseason as well? Luckily for them, they get a Browns team that can barely put a few good plays together, let alone an entire game’s worth of them. Cleveland’s quarterback experiment doesn’t look too promising and the football gods will want that conversation to continue deep into the offseason. Washington gets it done at home and stays alive for another week. 

The Pick: Commanders -1.5 (-112)

Will the Eagles notch a win at home to secure the NFC’s top seed? They might, but it probably won’t be easy, especially with Jalen Hurts likely sidelined. Plus, the NFL won’t get a great narrative going into Week 18 if the top seed is already locked up. Therefore we ride with the Saints of New Orleans to get the job done in South Philly. 

The Pick: Saints +5.5 (-105)

The Cardinals are a team that has the bad combination of too many injuries, while also being a bad football team. On the other side, it’s Week 17 and who knows what the Falcons really are? Reluctantly take the points with Arizona and remember there are plenty of other ways to enjoy a Sunday. 

The Pick: Cardinals +6 (-110)

Despite what they may say to the media, there is no doubt in my mind that the Jaguars are looking forward to a Week 18 clash with the Titans. This game means absolutely nothing for both sides, unless you count the Texans’ draft status. Jacksonville might decide it’s in their best interest to start resting players at some point so we will take the Texans in what might just be a trap game for the Jags. 

The Pick: Texans +3 (-106)

The Bears are bad and the Lions have a chance to make the playoffs after a slow start to their season. In a must-win game, hide those kneecaps in Chicago. 

The Pick: Lions -5.5 (-112)

Teddy Bridgewater gets the start for the Dolphins thanks to Tua Tagovailoa being sidelined with another concussion. Oddsmakers have settled on making Miami the underdog in Foxboro against the big, bad Patriots. Unfortunately for those oddsmakers, the Patriots no longer reside at the Salty Spitoon, instead choosing to do business at Weenie Hut Jr.’s. For the Spongebob fans out there, that was for you. For the non-Spongebob fans out there, shame on you. For both sides, we are betting the Dolphins to stop their skid. 

The Pick: Dolphins +2.5 (-110)

Will the Broncos get the new coach bump? It sounds like a fun story, but not one for us in this case. The Chiefs are still in the race for the AFC’s top seed and with Monday night’s result looming large for them, don’t expect Kansas City to slip up now. Expect Andy Reid’s team to show that Nathaniel Hackett isn’t the only thing that was wrong in Denver. 

The Pick: Chiefs -12.5 (-110)

One of the biggest lessons you can learn in this industry is that you don’t have to bet everything. You don’t. There’s nothing in the rulebook that says you do. Consider this game between the Colts and Giants to be a great example of exactly that. New York’s offense lacks weapons and Indianapolis lacks talent everywhere. What gives? To tell you the truth, I don’t know and I really don’t want to find out either. Take the points if you must. 

The Pick: Colts +5.5 (-110)

 

Late Afternoon Action

Like New York’s other team, I don’t know what to make of the Jets anymore. They have been a fun story all year and we’ve been riding with them all season as well. Yet the injuries have caught up to them. Poor execution has doomed them. Somehow, they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. However, Mike White’s ribs will go a long way in determining whether that can actually happen. With an offensive line that has shown too many cracks in recent weeks, I find it hard to be on their side. That’s before even mentioning the defense that has come crashing back down to earth in a big way. Can the Jets win? Absolutely. However, it’s hard to bet on them when they are one hard hit on White away from throwing the corpse of Joe Flacco out there again. So maybe the best move is to trust Geno Smith to lead his Seahawks to a win in what is a great revenge game narrative. But in the end, there probably isn’t a right side to be on at this moment.  

The Pick: Seahawks +1.5 (-110)

The Raiders have no interest in winning this game, or even really competing. The 49ers are preparing for what they hope is a long playoff run and will welcome a tune-up game to get them ready. The silver-and-black are a faithful bunch, but there won’t be much to cheer for in Vegas. Expect a sea of red in what promises to be an ugly affair in the desert. 

The Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-110)

In reality, the Vikings would love to be the team that sends the Packers, well you know, packing. However, Green Bay is in a situation where you just have to ride the wave until it all falls apart. They are finding ways to win and no matter how ugly, they are the group with all the motivation. Don’t buy into the cold weather narratives, but do buy into the Aaron Rodgers against the NFC North narratives. 

The Pick: Packers -3 (-110)

Brandon Staley’s Chargers clinched a playoff spot already, meaning these last two weeks of the regular season are perfect for figuring some things out and trying to stay healthy until the games really count again. On the other side, the Rams have really found something with this Baker Mayfield/Cam Akers duo, suddenly making them fun to watch again. The Rams have no reason to tank and the Chargers really have no true incentive to win, meaning we will take side with Sean McVay’s team.

The Pick: Rams +6.5 (-110)

 

Who’s covering in primetime?

Well, here we go again. The Steelers, who are impossible to get rid of, are still in the playoff hunt and now get another chance in primetime to show the world. Lamar Jackson is still sidelined for the Ravens and quite honestly, we all know they probably don’t have much of a chance in the playoffs. We’ve spoken at great length just how bad the Baltimore offense is and Mike Tomlin’s team is really starting to come together. They’ll find a way again on Sunday night. 

The Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)

Here it is, the game of the week. The best regular season Monday night game of the year was saved for the final one, as the Bills travel to Cincinnati for a date with the Bengals. There’s no way we are getting in front of this Bengals train right now, which is motoring on every week, stacking wins along the way. Everyone is focused on Buffalo and Kansas City in the race for the top seed, while Cincinnati is just lurking behind. Take the home team in what should be an incredible game.

The Pick: Bengals +1.5 (-115)