It goes without saying that things probably aren’t going very well if your NFL team is searching for a head coach. Yet, some teams are in need of a fresh face while others are beginning a climb up an unscalable mountain.
As things currently stand, five teams have vacancies at head coach. If we throw in Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay’s increasingly imminent departure, we get a half-dozen teams lacking leadership. How do they stack up against each other?
6. Los Angeles Rams
Frequently we ask ourselves what we’d give up for our favorite team to win a championship. Infrequently do both ends of the bargain come to fruition. Los Angeles, it was all worth it.
Trading the now-sixth overall selection along with other picks and Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford brought a Lombardi Trophy to La La Land. It has also made them a fundamentally unappealing landing spot for any head coach.
The Rams are without their top 10 pick. They have little cap space for a free agent class integral to fixing this roster. A year removed from a Super Bowl, Los Angeles has found themselves with a broken offensive line, an aging core, and virtually zero depth.
An injured Stafford’s days are numbered as an NFL quarterback. Aaron Donald has threatened retirement once before. Any coach coming out west will be faced with a long rebuild, an odyssey most coaches cannot survive.
5. Denver Broncos
The Rams made a franchise-altering trade that won the short-term at the expense of the long-term future. The Denver Broncos found a way to lose both.
The Russell Wilson trade will live in infamy. The alternative to Aaron Rodgers was so bad, head coach Nathaniel Hackett couldn’t survive a single season. Dreams of a deep playoff run quickly faded into a nightmare as the Denver offense stagnated far below league-average in every meaningful offensive statistic.
Now, the Broncos are stuck with Wilson. They’ll have the cash to patch up ancillary holes, but will be without the fifth pick. That selection now belongs to the Seattle Seahawks, who are 10-point underdogs in Saturday’s Wild Card contest.
Trading Bradley Chubb to Miami for San Francisco’s pick lightens that burden a bit, but losing a prolific edge rusher shouldn’t be ignored, either. The fact remains, Denver is not bringing a new quarterback into the building anytime soon.
Making the playoffs with a bad quarterback is difficult. Doing so with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert trading punches atop the division might prove to be impossible.
Whoever is brought in will be tasked with fixing an old, undersized, quarterback with almost as many bathrooms as touchdowns. Good luck.
4. Arizona Cardinals
There are a ton of variables that make the Arizona Cardinals the most high-variance landing spot for an aspiring head coach. To start, their opening at general manager is its own can of worms, albeit one that could attract coaches looking for a heavy influence in personnel. Star quarterback Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL towards the end of a rather stagnant year and will miss part of next season. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is reportedly on the trade block.
Arizona’s roster is like Los Angeles’ in its lack of depth, but the veterans that made it top heavy haven’t found the success the Rams had. The result: a perpetually mediocre team that is always an injury away from irrelevancy.
Look for the Cardinals to build around Murray with a QB-centric head coach. Whether it comes in the form of a hot young coordinator like Shane Steichen or an expensive buy like Sean Payton is yet to be seen. What we do know is that Arizona’s quickest path to playoff success has Murray under center, approaching his ceiling.
If Hopkins is traded, though, it’s possible the Red Sea will have to endure another rebuild. Would kickstarting that process be worth flipping Murray?
Arizona has an admirable amount of resources, but multi-layered uncertainty and an underdeveloped roster will scare candidates away. At least the weather is nice.
3. Houston Texans
Look, the Houston Texans stink. A few stars standout but there’s little disagreement that this roster is far from competing, even in a rather uninspiring AFC South.
With that said, they hold the rights to picks No. 2, 12, and 34 in the upcoming draft. Even if their chances at Bryce Young–FanDuel’s favorite to go first with -115 odds–have evaporated, they will likely address the quarterback position early. Giving a coach the opportunity to pick his own quarterback is lucrative. For more futures options surrounding the NFL draft, be sure to check out FanDuel and their promotion for Bet Basics readers: UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS.
However, the Texans are a poorly run organization and that shouldn’t be forgotten as the coaching carousel spins. Houston has now consecutively hired two Black coaches, only to relieve them of their duties after a single season. General manager Nick Caserio is not a pull factor.
The Texans are ripe with opportunity, but I can’t help but feel like the threat of a short leash will be a deterrent. Houston doesn’t have the talent to make up for organizational shortcomings.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Staying in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts offer an intriguing set of circumstances. I couldn’t blame you for ranking them much lower than second on this list. Nevertheless, Jeff Saturday did not work out. Who could have seen that coming?
What Houston lacks in job security, Indianapolis boasts. Things got ugly this year with multiple scapegoats and an eventual spiral to the fourth overall pick in the draft. Still, we’ve seen Jim Irsay be very patient with Chris Ballard. As long as Indianapolis does enough to keep their general manager employed, there’s little reason to doubt a head coach, especially a big name, wouldn’t be given a long leash.
There’s a good chance the Colts take their quarterback of the future in this upcoming class, and they have the second-most resources of any opening to actually build around that quarterback, whoever it may be.
Additionally, this team is infinitely more talented than Houston. Per Pro Football Focus, both offensive tackles were above average this season, with Braden Smith taking on some of the most difficult responsibilities of any tackle. Quenton Nelson had a down year for Quenton Nelson standards, but there’s reason to believe he’ll return to form, too.
Jonathan Taylor is elite, and the duo of Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce will provide the next passer with capable big bodies to target. Yes, the defense needs work, but one of the league’s best interior defensive line duos isn’t a bad place to start.
Indianapolis and former Colt Jim Harbaugh feel like a strong match given the ties to each other, and the circumstances surrounding them. Indianapolis is the closest opening to Michigan. The presumptive long leash meshes with the long-term vision Harbaugh likely has for his next team. Oh, and being a former quarterback has its perks as well.
A meddling owner will make things annoying and we’ve now officially seen this roster at its worst. Yet, Indianapolis’ proximity to a quarterback and current talent profile render it relatively desirable.
1. Carolina Panthers
By process of elimination, the Carolina Panthers are the best landing spot in this year’s coaching cycle.
For one, the NFC South’s future isn’t pretty. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ coaching staff managed to spoil much of the season and their quarterback is 45 years old. The New Orleans Saints seem to calmly exist in the seventh ring of cap hell and don’t have the picks to make up for it. The Atlanta Falcons were one of the league’s worst defenses this year and will likely ride with Desmond Ridder for at least one more season. Even a favorable outlook on the young quarterback wouldn’t have prospective coaches shaking in their boots.
Also, the roster is better than it’s given credit for. The offensive line outperformed expectations and DJ Moore continues to be a strong option for his quarterbacks. Their defense consists of arguably three top 15 players at their respective positions. There are legitimate building blocks in Carolina, with slightly less unabashed meddling from out-of-touch overlords.
Picking at No. 9, a quarterback is still in play and a good enough stop gap can make them competitive for the division. Hell, they already were with Sam Darnold under center.
The odds haven’t been released for any major books yet, but Covers has posted Steichen as the favorite (+275) with DeMeco Ryans and interim head coach Steve Wilks, two defensive coaches, in the running as well (+300). Any of those with a hotshot coordinator on the other side of the ball would be incredibly exciting for Panthers faithful.
BASIC TIPS
Betting on a head coach hiring would be considered a futures bet–a wager on an event in the more distant future than an upcoming regular season game. Like all futures, you are getting longer odds at the expense of time, which opens the door for more uncertainty. There are big payouts to be had, but it is paramount that bettors ensure they are working with enough information to confidently make their choice.