Finally! We can rejoice after a very successful 10-4 Week 8. After an incredible #NFLTradeDeadline, we’ve got a brand new slate with teams on the rise. There might not be any heavyweight fights found in #NFLWeek9, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. Let’s get into the new faces, new places, and new wagers for this weekend’s action.
*All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated.*
Who’s covering in the early afternoon slate?
If you could find odds on which game would have the most rushing attempts, the Green Bay Packers visiting the Detroit Lions would be the heavy favorite. Detroit’s horrendous defense continues to bite them in the kneecaps, and their early-season looks of competency have faded. They face a Packers team that has continued to look out of sorts, but are in prime position to do what they do best: running the football with the lead. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are one of the best one-two punches in football, and I expect them to hunt for touchdowns all afternoon.
The Pick: Packers -3.5 (-110)
I’ve written this paragraph three times now, trying to get my pick right. The Carolina Panthers look better of late, and if it wasn’t for the No Fun League referees, would’ve had a winning streak on their hands. They face a Cincinnati Bengals team that looked flat last week. Joe Burrow’s ability to feast on bad defenses scares me, and I made the mistake of trusting Atlanta’s beat up secondary against him recently. However, I think the market isn’t giving Carolina enough respect on that side of the ball. If they can keep this game from getting out of hand, D’Onta Foreman and the new look Panthers can reasonably find a way to cover.
For more on “covering,” make sure to check out the Basic Tips section at the bottom of this article.
The Pick: Panthers +7 (+100)
In the most recent rendition of Antalytics, I begged readers not to bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars out of excitement for a deal that won’t matter until 2023. I’ve decided to go with the Jaguars anyway. They’re home dogs to a bad Las Vegas Raiders team who may be without star wide receiver Davante Adams, who’s been under the weather 🤒. Trevor Lawrence gets a get-right game against an atrocious pass defense, and I think he takes full advantage. With the typical -110 odds, a successful $100 wager can net $90.90 in profit.
The Pick: Jaguars +2 (-110), Jaguars Moneyline (+115)
I planned to write about my New York Jets with a simple “Birthday Magic, trust me” comment, but my better senses prevailed. It is going to take a lot more than my birthday 🎂 wishes to fuel a Jets victory over the juggernaut Buffalo Bills. I’m not sure divine intervention would be enough. I don’t envision New York putting together an offensive performance in the same stratosphere as Buffalo, though New York’s corners and run defense might make things interesting for a little while.
The Pick: Bills -11.5 (-110), Under 46 (-110)
Avert your eyes 🙈! Hide the children! We may witness a game with no deep passes! The Los Angeles Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for their matchup with the Falcons, and I’m not overly confident in their success. Justin Herbert is still playing with refrigerated pudding for a rib cage and will be without his two top receivers. They’re not going to stretch the field whatsoever. Additionally, Atlanta doesn’t like to throw the ball in the first place. Playing the Swiss cheese 🧀 that is the Chargers defense only invites the run more. Two cursed franchises, a kicker revenge game, and a contest that could be over by halftime of the rest of these games ⚡️.
The Pick: Falcons +3 (-110)
Other than the Washington Commanders being at home, I’m not sure why this spread is as close as it is. Sure the Minnesota Vikings seem elite in the same way corn pretends to be a vegetable, but they definitely aren’t bad. We can’t say the same for Washington, despite last week’s heroics. Minnesota’s offense is legit, and got better at the deadline. Expect that talent discrepancy to show on Sunday.
The Pick: Vikings -3 (-110), Justin Jefferson to Score a TD (-104)
The Chicago Bears deserve our attention. Justin Fields is playing the best football of his (professional) career, and the surrounding cast looks better, too. The addition of Chase Claypool is fun and gives them a viable slot option to challenge opposing defenses. Few teams, though, offer a greater challenge to defenses than the Miami Dolphins 💨. Their wide receivers continue to run rampant and they got better on both sides of the ball Tuesday. This one can get away fast if Fields can’t continue his hot streak into November.
The Pick: Dolphins -4.5 (-110), Over 45.5 (-110), Tyreek Hill First Touchdown Scorer (+470)
Our final game in the early afternoon slate is an ugly one. The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out Sam Ehlinger, without the comfort of Jonathan Taylor behind him. On the other hand, the New England Patriots defense is surprisingly average when games are close. I struggle to see New England running away with this one, and if the Ehlinger effect is real, Indianapolis is in decent shape to pull off the upset.
The Pick: Colts +6 (-110)
Who will win the late afternoon games?
Todd Bowles may not be a very good head coach, but he knows how to get to the quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to a Los Angeles Rams team that is fundamentally broken due to their poor offensive line. Both of these teams have their warts, but a bounce-back victory, at home, could be what Tampa needs to set their season straight. If Cooper Kupp, the first read on seemingly every Stafford pass, isn’t 100%, we could be in for a snoozefest.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-105), Cooper Kupp Under 88.5 Receiving Yards (-101)
So, the schedule makers at the NFL headquarters screwed something up. There are only two late-afternoon contests this week! What am I supposed to do with my Sunday afternoon? You can turn on some basketball and place some bets 🤑 with Caesars’ BetBasics promotion: GET YOUR FIRST BET BACK UP TO $1,000.
The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals didn’t have the fireworks many anticipated just a few weeks ago. Seattle has continued their torrent pace since then, and there are signs of life coming out of Arizona, too, even if the wins are yet to pile up. Kyler Murray and his receivers should put up the points they failed to in their Week 6 matchup, now that DeAndre Hopkins is back and Rondale Moore is being utilized better. Unlike recent weeks, Seattle’s secondary will face an elite receiver. I’m not ready to trust them against such a lethal connection.
The Pick: Cardinals -2 (-110), Cardinals Moneyline (-125)
What are the best bets for primetime?
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites at home for Sunday Night Football. They’ll have the quarterback advantage no matter what, but we aren’t yet sure who that advantage will be over. Ryan Tannehill and his aggressive mediocrity will be a game-time decision, meaning it might be Malik Willis time. Again. Last week, he was asked to do a whole lot of nothing. He handed the ball off to Derrick Henry, and Henry, almost by himself, destroyed the Texans. They won’t be as successful with that strategy this time around, but you’d be mistaken if you thought they weren’t going to try. Henry is going to eat away at the Kansas City defense and the game clock, keeping this game fairly low-scoring and closer than it probably should be.
The Pick: Titans +12.5 (-110), Under 46 (-110)
It pains me to say it, but Lamar Jackson may have to deal with even more bad-faith criticism once the Baltimore Ravens fall on the road to the New Orleans Saints. The running backs are banged up, Mark Andrews is playing hurt (if he’s on the field at all), and they are without their top wide receiver, Rashod Bateman. On the other sideline, New Orleans is coming off a stress-free win and will roll with Andy Dalton, who’s playing better than I thought. Throw in Baltimore’s defensive woes and an upset could be brewing in the Gulf.
The Pick: Saints +2.5 (-110), Chris Olave to Score a Touchdown (+190)
BASIC TIPS
The vast majority of bets described in this piece are Against The Spread bets, where teams “cover” instead of winning. Covering is when one of two things happens (I’ll use this week’s Bears game as an example). The Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites (-4.5) over the Bears. In order to cover, they must win by at least five points. Chicago (+4.5) would cover by winning, or losing by four points or less. Essentially, the team’s score, plus the spread (or minus, if they are the favorite) must remain higher than their opponent’s score. If the Dolphins win 28-17, they cover. If they win 20-17, they do not. This remains true for all #NFLbetting ATS wagers, which typically hold -110 odds.